Poll predicts FF wipeout in county

FIANNA FÁIL in Kerry is facing a catastrophic collapse in the general election and it is looking increasingly likely that the party will be denied any local representation in the Dáil for the first time.

A local opinion poll has predicted that both John O’Donoghue in Kerry South and Tom McEllistrim in Kerry North-Limerick West are in real danger of losing their seats and they face a major uphill struggle if they are to salvage their political careers.

And it has emerged that polling day could turn into Independents Day in the key Kerry South constituency with two former Fianna Fáil members, Tom Fleming and Michael Healy-Rae, in real contention to win seats while South Kerry Independent Alliance candidate, Cllr Michael Gleeson, is also in with a great chance of causing a major upset.

The random telephone poll, conducted last Saturday by students at the Institute of Technology in Tralee and published in Kerry’s Eye, also indicated a surge in support for Fine Gael and Labour.

The Kerry South poll has Tom Fleming, who quit Fianna Fáil to go solo, at 15%, Michael Gleeson (SKIA) and Tom Sheahan (FG) both on 11% and three candidates, Brendan Griffin (FG); Marie Moloney (Lab) and John O’Donoghue (FF), all on 10%. Michael Healy-Rae (Ind) on 10%.

If the Saturday telephone survey stands up to scrutiny, Cllr Fleming looks poised to top the poll with Deputy Sheahan, Cllr Healy-Rae, Cllr Gleeson, Deputy O’Donoghue, Cllr Moloney and Cllr Griffin all left to battle it out for the two remaining seats.

The outcome remains on a knife-edge, particularly with 25% of those polled insisting they didn’t know who they would support.

Fine Gael TD Tom Sheahan should retain his seat, particularly if he stays ahead of running mate Cllr Brendan Griffin, and if the Healy-Rae vote collapses there is likely to be a dramatic tussle between Labour’s Marie Moloney and former Labour member, Michael Gleeson.

In Kerry North-Limerick West, veteran Fine Gael TD Jimmy Deenihan is the clear frontrunner with 31% while the 19% for Labour’s Arthur Spring leaves him well positioned to book a seat in the Dáil.

The poll would indicate that Sinn Féin’s Martin Ferris (14%) will also hold his seat and that would leave Fianna Fáil TD Tom McEllistrim (7%) in the political wilderness.

The poll gives Tralee Independent, Dr Bridget O’Brien, 5%, while Glin, Co Limerick-based Fine Gael candidate John Sheahan is on just 2%.

Tellingly, 22% were still in the ‘don’t know’ category.

Strategists on all sides were last night playing down the significance of the poll, insisting the election was still there to be won or lost.