Facing the greatest gamble of his political career

GERRY ADAMS was never a man to shy away from risks.

After navigating a number of sea changes in a long political career, at 62 he is embarking on a major re-invention of himself and his Sinn Féin Party.

Deciding to give up what he described as the “safest Sinn Féin seat on the planet” in West Belfast to contest a seat in the Dáil is a “big risk” as he himself accepted when he made the surprise announcement yesterday.

If he does not win a seat in Louth in the next general election, having sacrificed his Northern Assembly and House of Commons seats, his career will more than likely come to a bitterly disappointing end.

But if the gamble pays off, it will mark a major shift for the party’s standing in the South and could contribute to a big surge of support and give Sinn Féin a louder, more credible voice in the Dáil and in the general political debate.

While it might have come as a surprise, Gerry Adams’ announcement was the logical next step for both him as a politician and SF as a party.

With the political situation in the North calming down and his colleague Martin McGuinness taking on the role of Deputy First Minister at Stormont, Mr Adams has had a reduced workload, a lower profile and a quieter voice.

He has been travelling to Dublin regularly, most recently for a press conference on Sinn Féin’s pre-budget submission, but as an unelected politician here he is really just shouting from the sidelines.

A combination of events, including the decision by SF’s finance spokesperson Arthur Morgan not to contest his Louth seat, the addition of a seat in that constituency because of boundary changes and the party’s likely success in next week’s Donegal by-election make perfect timing for Mr Adams to move into politics in the South.

But more crucially, it is the country’s unprecedented economic turmoil, the uncertainty among voters and the desire for a change of the political landscape that makes this the opportune time for him to seek a Dáil mandate and push his party into a political void that could be left when voters turn against Fianna Fáil.

This theme of change dominated his speech to supporters at a Republican commemoration at Edentubber in Louth where he announced his desire to represent the county.

“Ireland is at a crossroads,” he stated. “Ireland needs political change. We need change in the Dáil.”

“We need new politics. We need a political realignment,” he told the gathering before explaining, in an Obama-esque campaign rhetoric that: “There is a better way. Together we can rebuild Ireland.”

Adams clearly believes there is an opening for a left-wing party to speak for thousands who are losing their jobs, face welfare cuts or are being driven into poverty.

While the three main parties – Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and Labour – agree on the broad economic strategy of cutting the budget deficit to 3% of GDP by 2014, Sinn Féin – rightly or wrongly – are the only ones opposing such a correction in this timeframe.

“A Fine Gael-led government, propped up by the Labour Party is not a real alternative. Fine Gael and Labour offer nothing that is substantially different from the current government. They are part of the consensus for cuts,” Adams said.

He told how his party will protect the “economically vulnerable” and those on low and middle incomes, while cutting the salary of ministers and TDs.

“We have a Republic only in name. Sinn Féin is a Republican party. We believe that a Republic must first and foremost be about the welfare of the community. This includes access to a decent public health service and the protection of vulnerable people such as the old, the sick and those with disabilities.”

In revolutionary tones he spoke of his intention to “lead” the people who “make a stand against what is happening” to create “a better way forward for our country and its people”.

For all these promises and despite the strong support base in Louth, there is no guarantee that Adams will retain the SF seat currently held by Arthur Morgan, and find himself with a seat in the Dáil.

Once parachuted into the constituency he is likely to face tough scrutiny on past issues which could ultimately focus negative attention on his party in the South, and put the other three Dáil seats at risk.

This happened in the 2007 general election, when he performed disastrously in an RTÉ television debate and was unable to answer questions on economic issues in the South.

Following that election, Adams missed a sitting day in Stormont to sit in the public gallery of the Dáil to watch Bertie Ahern be voted as Taoiseach.

Whether or not he will get beyond the visitors’ chair of the Dáil remains to be seen. But Adams does not take risks without skilled calculation, and it’s something he’s willing to put his personal, and possibly even his party’s, future on the line for.