GP phone logs may give warning of flu pandemic

PUBLIC health specialists have unearthed a possible early-warning system for the onset of a flu pandemic by examining the logs of patient telephone calls to GP out-of-hours (OOH) services.

Using a computer software package, health surveillance experts combed the call records for mentions of influenza-like illness (ILI) and discovered that the number of calls to OOH services peaked a week ahead of a national peak of the pandemic. This advance surge occurred in five out of six flu seasons analysed (2003-2008) and led those who carried out the research to conclude that the data extracted from the OOH telephone records had “the potential to be utilised as an early alert system for seasonal and pandemic influenza”.

The researchers, including Dr Elaine Brabazon, Health Service Executive (HSE) surveillance scientist, and Dr Declan Bedford, public health doctor, also felt the method they had used “could be applied to other important areas of public health surveillance” at a relatively low cost.