250,000 jobs to be created over next five years, says report

SOME 250,000 jobs are expected to be created in the Irish labour market over the next five years, according to a major new report by Fás and the Economic and Social Research Institute.

However, the study also acknowledged the number of people at work in the Republic by 2015 will be 80,000 fewer than at the height of the boom in 2008.

The latest edition of the Fás/ESRI occupational employment forecasts, which analyses 43 individual occupations, claims the speed and the extent of recovery in the labour market will show wide variances between different job types.

Its predictions are based on the economic recession bottoming out this year.

The report concludes some occupations will emerge with relatively strong employment growth, while others will suffer a continuing decline beyond 2010.

Sectors which are expected to fully recover and surpass 2008 employment levels within the next five years include all hi-tech manufacturing areas, transport, communications, business and finance.

The highest employment growth is expected in the professional and technical occupations, such as jobs related to science, business and IT.

Many other sectors, including construction, food manufacturing and hotels and restaurants, are expected to show some signs of recovery, although the total numbers employed in such industries will not achieve their pre-recession levels by 2015.

The number of skilled construction workers, production operatives, sales assistants, clerical staff and unskilled manual workers in employment will record slower growth and the overall number in each sector is unlikely to regain their 2008 levels.

In contrast, the number of people working in traditional manufacturing and agriculture is expected to continue to decline in the years ahead. It is estimated that just 87,000 people will be working in farming by 2015 compared to 117,000 in 2008 – a fall of 30%.

According to the report, the embargo on recruitment in the public sector due to Government cutbacks means it is likely the number of people employed in health, education and public administration will remain relatively static between now and 2015.

One of the author’s of the report, Jasmina Behan, said the predictions were based on assumptions that the economies of Ireland’s main trading partners would recover this year, while Irish competitiveness would also be restored and average GNP growth of 5% per annum was achieved over the next five years.

On a positive note, Ms Behan said most of the decline in employment had already taken place with the upturn in the labour market expected before the end of the year.

The report predicts the number of people at work in 2015 will rise to 1.95 million compared to the pre-recession peak in 2008 of 2.03 million.

By 2015, the number of women in employment is expected to surpass 2008 levels, unlike the number of men.

Females are also gaining in many occupations with women expected to account for more than half of all business service professionals and managerial staff in five years time. People with greater training and education will continue to find it easier to gain employment than those with few educational qualifications. The report predicts 90% of all professionals will hold a third-level qualification by 2015.