World faces catastrophe unless energy use changes

UNLESS there is a seismic change in global energy usage the world is facing temperature increases of up to 6C by 2030 and catastrophic consequences for our climate, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has warned.

Greenhouse gas emissions must stabilise and temperature increases limited to 2C if we are to avoid severe weather conditions and sea-level rises, the global climate change think-tank has warned in its World Energy Outlook for 2009.

Published yesterday, the latest report estimates up to $10.5 trillion (€7tn) will have to be spent globally on low-carbon technology and energy efficiency if we are to avoid climate disaster. However, it also predicts global transport, building and industry energy costs will drop €8.6tn by 2030 if this investment is made.

The report states that while global energy usage has fallen this year owing to the global recession, so too has investment in energy.

The IEA says continued failure to invest in energy technology will threaten energy security and climate change as we won’t have the capacity to absorb increased energy demand. It warns that price volatility will continue and that “the days of cheap energy are over”.

Output at existing oil fields will drop by almost two-thirds by 2030, it says.

Without any change in government policy, the IEA predicts, energy demand will increase 40% between now and 2030, the equivalent of 16.8 billion tonnes of oil. It also forecasts India and China will account for half of that increased demand, with China overtaking the US by 2025 as the world’s biggest spender on oil and gas imports.

IEA executive director Nobuo Tanaka said the report seeks to “add momentum” to the UN climate talks in Copenhagen.

“World leaders gathering in Copenhagen next month have a historic opportunity to avert the worst effects of climate change. The World Energy Outlook 2009 seeks to add momentum to their negotiations at this crucial stage by detailing the practical steps needed for a sustainable energy future as part of a global climate deal,” said Mr Tanaka.

The IEA predicts huge spending on oil and gas imports over the next 20 years – an expense that will be “a substantial burden” on import dependent countries like Ireland. It predicts Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries revenues from oil and gas exports will rise to $30tn by 2030, almost a five-fold rise on earnings over the past 23 years. It predicts higher oil prices will be a big threat to the world economy.

“WEO-2009 provides both a caution and grounds for optimism. Caution, because a continuation of current trends in energy use puts the world on track for a rise in temperature of up to 6C and poses serious threats to global energy security. Optimism, because there are cost-effective solutions to avoid severe climate change while also enhancing energy security, and these are within reach as the new outlook shows,” said Mr Tanaka.