Kenny is no mug, just look at the figures

THERE are many people in politics who continue to take Enda Kenny for a mug. Taoiseach Brian Cowen is the embodiment of it, his low opinion of Kenny evident in his withering putdowns of the Fine Gael leader in the Dáil.

Cowen is not alone. Numerous people in Fianna Fáil detest Mr Kenny, regarding him as nothing more than a ventriloquist’s dummy — the suggestion being that his small coterie of influential advisers are pulling the strings. The media, too, has been fiercely critical at times.

And yet, this is Fine Gael’s electoral record since Kenny was appointed leader: in the 2004 local elections, the party won 16 extra seats and came within 10 seats of overtaking Fianna Fáil at local government level. In the European elections that same year, Fine Gael succeeded in overtaking Fianna Fáil as the biggest party at European level, winning five seats to the latter’s four.

In the 2005 Dáil by-elections, Fine Gael’s Shane McEntee won the seat for the party in Meath.

In the 2007 general election, Fine Gael won an extra 20 seats.

In last weekend’s local elections, Fine Gael finally succeeded in overtaking Fianna Fáil as the largest party at local authority level, and now boasts 122 council seats more than its main rival.

Just for good measure, Fine Gael retained its status as the biggest party at European level. It also won one of the two Dáil by-elections in stunning fashion, thanks to the recruitment of George Lee in Dublin South. And it is now perfectly placed to comfortably win the next general election.

That all sounds like a puff piece for Kenny. It isn’t. It is simply using the Fine Gael leader’s record to suggest it’s time to stop taking him for a mug. He is nobody’s fool — and there is a ruthlessness there that matches Fianna Fáil’s most aggressive operators.

Take, for example, the other Dáil by-election last weekend in Dublin Central. Fine Gael didn’t win, but it wasn’t for the want of manoeuvring on Kenny’s part.

Last year, when the Oireachtas established a cross-party committee to examine the fallout from the rejection of the Lisbon treaty, Fine Gael was handed the chairmanship. But rather than picking a heavyweight from his frontbench, or indeed any of his TDs, Kenny chose for the job a relatively unknown senator, Paschal Donohoe, who suddenly found himself in an excellent position to build his profile.

Independent TD Tony Gregory was gravely ill at the time, and Donohoe was Fine Gael’s likely candidate in Dublin Central if Mr Gregory died and a by-election was held to fill his seat. Kenny would no doubt vigorously dispute that either he or the party was strategising so cynically — make of the circumstances what you will.

Despite his defeat in Dublin Central, Donohoe won a lot of votes and is now well placed for the next general election. So too are a rake of sitting and newly-elected Fine Gael councillors across the country. With George Lee’s addition, the party now has 52 seats in the Dáil. It will aim for at least 18 more when the election takes place. Arguably the biggest task between now and then will be for the party to avoid complacency.

And what can we expect in the meantime? There will be a front- bench reshuffle, probably in the autumn just before the new Dáil term begins, and Lee will be elevated to a prominent role. There will also be a “George Lee Roadshow” of sorts, with Fine Gael seeking to capitalise on his star power by having him visit constituencies nationwide in a bid to drive up the party’s support. There will be a raft of new policy papers launched and old ones relaunched, as the party seeks to demonstrate it is an alternative government in waiting. And there will be extensive media training for the new councillors, in preparation for the general election battle.

Kenny himself, of course, could in theory also benefit from further media training. While politically he is no mug, his performances on TV and radio frequently fail to convince. But in reality, he’s probably past the point where his media performances can be improved by significant margins. And besides, Fine Gael have made a reasonable job of managing his weaknesses.

Party sources say that, as a rough estimate, Kenny takes just 30% of the airtime offered to him by RTÉ, giving the rest to his frontbenchers. The party says this is to maximise opportunities for others and show the strength and depth of Kenny’s team. His opponents would claim it’s proof that Fine Gael want to limit Kenny’s media appearances.

It could be spun either way. But it’s hard to spin results. And on that front, Kenny — for the moment at least — is clearly winning.