‘Mayor Bertie Ahern’ seems increasingly unlikely

THE stunning collapse of Fianna Fáil’s vote in the Dublin Central by-election may have ruined Bertie Ahern’s chances of becoming Dublin Mayor.

Thanks to Mr Ahern’s legendary political machine and his popularity as taoiseach, Fianna Fáil secured 44.45% of the first-preference vote in Dublin Central in the 2007 general election.

This was largely regarded as a personal vote for Mr Ahern, and his transfers helped an extremely weak candidate, Cyprian Brady, squeeze over the line to win a second seat for Fianna Fáil in the constituency.

Given that Mr Ahern had been entangled in the Mahon tribunal for several months prior to the general election, the massive Fianna Fáil vote was seen as evidence that the people of Dublin Central would stick by him through thick and thin.

But their support proved temporary. In the by-election, they deserted the former taoiseach in their droves.

Of course, he wasn’t the by-election candidate – his brother, Cllr Maurice Ahern, was.

But Bertie threw his full weight behind Maurice’s campaign and canvassed hard. It didn’t work. The Fianna Fáil vote collapsed to just 12.3%, leaving Maurice Ahern in fifth place in the count – the first time in history that Fianna Fáil has sunk so low in a by-election.

But a further humiliation was in store for Maurice, as he lost his council seat too. The collapse of the Ahern vote now raises serious doubts about the viability of the former taoiseach as a candidate to be the first directly elected mayor of Dublin.

Environment Minister John Gormley recently announced the capital would get its first directly elected mayor next year.

Over the last few weeks, Bertie Ahern gave strong hints that he would be interested – provided the mayor was given real powers.

“I think it would be a fascinating job for an experienced politician who would understand local government and understand national politics,” he told guests at one book launch. “And not mentioning myself, but I think it would be an excellent job.”

Mr Ahern also made clear he wanted “celebrity” candidates prevented from entering the race.

“I think if you’re going to have a directly elected mayor, it should be for somebody who has a proven record in politics.”

It seemed he essentially wanted the way made clear for his own run for the post.

But the odds of Mr Ahern making such a triumphant return to politics must now have surely lessened.

The collapse of his vote in Dublin Central suggests that at least a portion of his constituency has lost its idolised view of Mr Ahern and believe he has questions to answer – about his management of the economy, and about all that cash unearthed by the tribunal.

It’s possible that Mr Ahern could recover some of that support, given his campaigning skills. But even if he did feel he could secure a sizeable vote, he would have other problems – in the shape of his own party and the Greens.

At a time when they’ve sunk to a record low in terms of public support, Fianna Fáil won’t want to run a candidate for a big job who is tainted in any way.

The same is true for the Greens. They suffered a near-wipeout in the local elections and, if they are to recover, they can’t afford to have one of their few eye-catching initiatives being hijacked by a politician who has sunk in public esteem.

Chances are, if they are still in coalition this time next year, Fianna Fáil and the Greens will conspire to ensure Mr Ahern gets nowhere near the Mansion House.