Voters poised to inflict ultimate pain

AT least Brian Cowen has turned on its head the old maxim that all political careers end in failure – his premiership began in failure and unravelled from there.

Losing Lisbon last June dealt a crushing early blow to his authority, and next month’s European, local and by-election showdowns threaten to finish the job.

The country is in an angry, agitated mood, bewildered by the sheer scale and suddenness of the economic crash, and frightful the Government has still failed to put a floor under the collapse or offer any credible exit strategy from its consequences.

The Taoiseach clearly doesn’t get the national pain, or if he does, is unable to communicate that fact, while the nation doesn’t quite get the leader of the opposition as an attractive alternative Taoiseach.

Mr Cowen now risks becoming a mere cigar butt premier wedged in between the Bertie Bubble and a new Rainbow ascendancy.

A low turn-out and local factors will mean Fianna Fáil will not realise the abject disaster of hitting its opinion poll low of 23% on election day, but it is on course to lose both Dáil elections, drop to the second party in terms of councillors and be reduced to a humiliating two out of 12 MEPs.

Such a result should normally force a Taoiseach already viewed as in terminal decline from office, but FF backbenchers know if they lose a second leader in just over a year they cannot expect the country to forego a general election and accept a successor with a third-hand mandate.

So, authority will continue to drain from Mr Cowen’s fingertips as the Dáil numbers become even tighter, the pressure on his over-promoted Tánaiste intensifies to breaking point and the balance sheets continue to veer wildly off target towards a third emergency budget this autumn which will have to slice deep into front line spending as there is simply nothing left to tax.

But this is also a major test for Enda Kenny, as Fine Gael has made the elementary mistake of trumpeting their opinion poll leads in recent months. This was partly the result of sheer hubris at being ahead of Fianna Fáil for a sustained period for the first time in its history and also an attempt to arrest fears regarding Mr Kenny’s personal ratings going in the opposite direction.

Though FG support has been traditionally underplayed by such surveys, that proved not to be the case at the last election and if FF defies political gravity and claws back to 30% it could be conveyed as a some sort of recovery for the Government and trigger a fresh round of heave rumours against Mr Kenny.

Ironically, the coup of attracting RTÉ’s George Lee to the ticket may increase pressure on the much-derided Mayoman. The combination of Richard Bruton as leader of the opposition, backed by Mr Lee as shadow Finance Minister, would be a formidable partnership for Fianna Fáil to try to undermine in the public mind – the Two Brains vs the Two Battered Brians.

Labour optimists are again hoping for nothing less than the breakdown of the post-civil war political settlement. They believed the Spring tide of 1992 would trigger a surge strong enough to sweep away the dominance of the two centre-right parties, but that proved just a high water mark.

Eamon Gilmore’s pinpoint assassination of Mr Cowen’s past reputation for economic competence has impressed voters, particularly those in public service jobs, fearful FF has now deserted them. This could see Labour take three Euro seats and position the party for 30-plus Dáil TDs next time out.

The Dublin South by-election battle could not have been better scripted to play-out the banking crisis in microcosm as Mr Lee will be pitched as the white knight slaying the dragon of corporate over-indulgence as his FF opponent’s employment with scandal-splattered Anglo Irish Bank will be used against him, despite the fact Shay Brennan was not personally involved in any alleged wrong doing.

Mr Lee landed in the blueshirt heaven of Dublin South via a silken parachute, but the contest in the heart of the capital – ie the Dublin Central by-election – will not be such a walk-over for FG favourite Paschal Donohue.

The leftwing vote will be maximised by three candidates in the form of Labour’s Ivana Bacik, Tony Gregory’s heir Maureen O’Sullivan and Sinn Féin’s Christy Burke, and it will be a close run thing between the last of trio standing and Mr Donohue.

The Sinn Féin element will be an intriguing wild card in this contest. For all her media magnetism, Mary Lou McDonald was viewed as a middle-class outside entryist by many with Shinner inclinations in the inner city who did not turn out to back her. The Bertie vote is now floating and early indications suggest it could transfer to SF in stronger numbers than expected.

When Fianna Fall collapsed to 32% last time out for these contests in 2004, it provoked panic throughout the party and saw the Government relaunched as the highly divisive figure of Charlie McCreevy was banished to Brussels. Things look like they will be much worse on June 5, leaving a Taoiseach who has no electoral mandate of his own struggling to fight the economic firestorm.

Finance Minister Brian Lenihan gleefully boasts of his ability to bleed the taxpayer dry without rioting in the streets: “The steps taken have impressed our partners in Europe, who are amazed at our capacity to take pain.”

We will soon see how much pain the Taoiseach and Fianna Fáil can endure from voters in return.