Irish worst-case scenario would see 2,700 lives lost

SWINE flu could claim nearly 2,700 lives here if worst-case predictions for the spread of the disease come true, Europe’s top disease detectives have calculated.

Using statistics from the last three pandemics in 1918, 1957 and 1968, scientists from the European Centre for Disease Control said as many as one in three of the population here could come down with the virus over a period of time.

They would expect no more than one in 10 or 12 people to be sick at the same time, however, and say the death rate would be likely to be one in 500 which in Irish terms would equate to around 2,666 victims over the lifetime of the outbreak – seven times the number of people who die annually here from conventional flu and its complications.