Bargaining begins to find government partner for FF

FIANNA FÁIL will form the next government — that much was clear from a very early stage yesterday.

The only question remaining is with whom Fianna Fáil will govern.

At the time of writing last night, the party was shaping up to win in the region of 78 seats.

Fianna Fáil officials weren’t ruling out reaching the magical 83 mark, which would give the party a majority in the Dáil and rule out the need for a coalition partner. They stressed, however, that they would need a major slice of luck in a handful of marginal constituencies to pull that off.

Assuming, then, that the party falls short of the overall majority — and Foreign Affairs Minister Dermot Ahern was indicating that 80 seats might be as much as Fianna Fail could hope for — it will require support to form a government.

So to whom will the party reach out?

Before the election, Fianna Fáil had said it would prefer to continue with the PDs. However, the PDs endured a catastrophic election, losing seats in several constituencies. Last evening, only Mary Harney and Noel Grealish looked safe. Party leader Michael McDowell, Liz O’Donnell, Mae Sexton and Tim O’Malley had lost their seats.

For that reason, then, the PDs look an unlikely bet.

Labour was the other party to which Fianna Fáil had been reaching out prior to the election. But that was when Fianna Fáil thought it would return with circa 70 seats, thereby requiring a coalition partner with a significant Dáil presence — ie, Labour — to ensure a stable coalition. But now Fianna Fáil is set to win 78 or more seats and is in a different position.

This is why Education Minister Mary Hanafin last night indicated that an arrangement with the Green Party might be possible.

That, of course, depends on how many TDs the Greens come back with, but if the party holds its current tally of six seats — albeit that is far from guaranteed — a Fianna Fail-Green alliance looks feasible.

If the numbers don’t stack up, or the Greens don’t play ball, Fianna Fáil could again sound out Labour.

Labour leader Pat Rabbitte’s vehement opposition to any agreement with Fianna Fáil is no longer likely to be a major obstacle to such a deal, because Mr Rabbitte may not be leader of his party for much longer.

In addition, there would be a desire within Labour for such an alliance, with some sections of the party long believing that Fianna Fáil is a more natural bedfellow in terms of stated aims and policy direction than Fine Gael.

Fianna Fáil, however, would likely have to concede more in terms of Cabinet positions and junior ministries to Labour than the Greens. For that reason, the Greens look a more likely. But, until all the results are in, and the full picture emerges, Fianna Fáil will keep its options open.