Fine Gael demonstrates strongest voter loyalty
Fine Gael will be the main beneficiaries of this switch, with almost one in 10 who voted Fianna Fáil in 2002 planning to vote for the main opposition party.
A new opinion poll, carried out by Lansdowne Market Research on behalf of the Irish Examiner, found Fine Gael and Labour command greater voter loyalty than Fianna Fáil.
More than nine-in-10 voters (91%) who gave Fine Gael first preference votes in the 2002 general election intend to do so again.
Labour has managed to retain 87% of those who gave it first preference votes. However, the poll shows Fianna Fáil has lost the most ground: just 82% of those who gave the party first preference votes in 2002 intend to do so again.
More worryingly, almost one in 10 (8%) who gave them first preference votes in 2002 now intend to vote Fine Gael.
This is a much higher percentage than the number intending to switch in the opposite direction — just 2% of those who gave Fine Gael first preference votes last time intend to vote Fianna Fáil this time.
However, when it comes to voters intending to switch from the Labour Party, Fianna Fáil will benefit most, with 5% of former Labour supporters prepared to give first preference to the main Government party.
This compares to a 4% switch in favour of Fine Gael. Overall, the poll predicts a 5% drop since 2002 in first preference votes for Fianna Fáil and a 2% drop for the PDs. Sinn Féin and the independents are down 1% and 2%.
Predictions for the main opposition parties are more positive: Fine Gael are up 3% and Labour are up 2%. The Green Party is also up 2%.
Fine Gael commands the greatest voter loyalty.
Almost one in five who voted Fianna Fáil in 2002 plan to switch to another party.
Fine Gael and Labour need the Greens to force Fianna Fáil and the PDs out of government.
Support from those who gave Fianna Fáil first preference votes in 2002 is down 5%.
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