Green Party’s strongest supporters are women, youth

TWICE as many women as men are likely to vote for the Green Party in the upcoming general election, but farmers hold no truck with the environmentalists.

A new opinion poll has found farmers have no plans to consider the Greens when deciding on first preference votes. Fine Gael, on the other hand, command a strong rural vote, with more than two in five farmers declaring their intention to vote for the main opposition party. Fianna Fáil will also do well among rural voters, with 41% of farmers planning to vote in their favour, according to Lansdowne Market Research, who carried out the poll on behalf of the Irish Examiner.

In an analysis of how votes will be cast according to age, the Green Party’s strongest support is likely to come from those in the 25-34 age bracket. However, support for the Greens among those aged 50 upwards is poor. Labour’s strongest support is in the 50-64 age category. Support for Sinn Féin is strongest in the 25-49 age group. Fianna Fáil is most likely to attract the “grey” vote — nearly half of over 65s plan to vote FF. This compares to just quarter of this age group declaring for Fine Gael. Fine Gael’s support is strongest in the 25-34 age group (28% of first preference votes), but it is still lower than the one third of first preference votes Fianna Fáil can expect from this cohort. Fianna Fáil’s weakest support is in the 50-64 age category, but the party still commands more first preference votes than any other party among this age group. Support for the Independents is strongest in this group.

An analysis of how gender affects voting patterns shows more women than men plan to vote for Fianna Fáil. If the party gets 37% of the total vote, as predicted in the poll, 39% of it will come from female voters and 34% from male. Fine Gael attracts slightly more male voters. Labour attracts men and women in equal measure, while Sinn Féin and the Independents are more popular among men.

In a class breakdown of votes, the lower classes favour Fianna Fáil more than the other parties — nearly two in five said FF would receive their first preference votes — but the party also does well among professionals, with one in three saying they intend to vote FF. Sinn Féin can expect almost twice as many votes from the lower classes compared with professionals.