Battle stations: contenders to fight for hot seat

SIX votes: that was the margin by which sitting TD John Dennehy fended off the challenge of Independent Kathy Sinnott in the 2002 General Election.

His victory meant Fianna Fáil retained its three seats in the constituency, albeit by a whisker. Yesterday’s poll suggests the forthcoming election battle in Cork South Central will be just as competitive.

It indicates that Enterprise Minister Micheál Martin will again top the poll, and Mr Dennehy will also be re-elected. Both Fine Gael’s Simon Coveney and the Green’s Dan Boyle should also be returned to the Dáil.

But the big question is where the remaining seat — currently held by Fianna Fáil’s junior minister Batt O’Keeffe — will go.

Mr O’Keeffe will run in the Cork North West constituency this time out, so his seat is up for grabs. There’s no shortage of contenders for it.

Fianna Fáil’s candidate to replace Mr O’Keeffe is Michael McGrath. He’s on 11% of the vote, according to the poll, putting him in a strong position to take the last seat.

If that happened, it would confound the general assumption within the square mile around Leinster House that Fine Gael would gain in the constituency.

Fine Gael has long been counting on Deirdre Clune winning back the seat she lost in 2002 and returning to the Dáil together with Mr Coveney.

The party saw Cork South Central as one of its safest bets for a gain as the party endeavours to return to government.

The poll suggests otherwise, however, firmly denting Fine Gael’s sense of expectancy.

With just 6% of the first-preference vote, Ms Clune is effectively nowhere — a major surprise given the publicity the former TD enjoyed as Lord Mayor of Cork last year, which many thought would boost her vote considerably.

It may be that the Fine Gael strategy of running three candidates on its ticket is backfiring.

Mr Coveney is safe, but the remainder of the party vote is being split between Ms Clune and Jerry Buttimer, with the result that neither is in position to win a seat.

Both would no doubt argue those numbers are not representative of their encounters on the doorsteps, and that their true level of support is much higher.

Neither will be discounting their chances just yet.

Nor will Labour’s Ciarán Lynch, a first-time candidate who’s on 9% of the vote, according to the poll — a solid showing which puts him in with a shout.

It took three recounts before Mr Dennehy secured that fourth seat in 2002. Recounts may be in the offing this time round, too.