Country ‘will be fully prepared for flu pandemic’

THE country will be fully prepared for a possible influenza pandemic, an expert group said yesterday, while admitting that an unprecedented worst case scenario could result in the deaths of up to 53,000 people.

The Department of Health and the Health Service Executive yesterday published two documents relating to the outbreak of a possible pandemic and the State response: The Pandemic Influenza Preparedness for Ireland: Advice of the Pandemic Influenza Expert Group, and the National Pandemic Influenza Plan, aimed primarily at the public.

Professor Bill Hall, chairman of the Pandemic Influenza Expert Group, said it had two scenarios as a possible model for the number of people falling ill and fatalities in the event of a pandemic: one based on the 1959 pandemic, in which there would be a 25% infection rate involving around one million people, resulting in 6,000 hospitalisations and some 4,000 deaths; and a worst case scenario, based on an unprecedented infection rate of 50%, would result in a “catastrophic situation”, he said. Up to 78,000 people would be hospitalised and some 53,000 people could die, although he stressed that this scenario was highly unlikely.

“I believe that scenario will never occur,” he said.

In the event of a pandemic, there will be restrictions on public gatherings, a voluntary stay-at-home policy, no schools or colleges will operate, and there would be managed entry into the country. Businesses would be disrupted and, in severe cases, food and energy production would be disrupted. All elective surgery, with the exception of life-threatening cases, would cease, with all available beds and medical staff being made available to put the emergency plans into operation.

With treatment, people should be able to recover within seven days, although anyone suffering from the strain of flu should take anti-virals within 48 hours of the onset of symptoms.

The publication of the plan follows warnings from the World Health Organisation to countries worldwide that each country should have guidelines in place in the event of a pandemic. The WHO also drafted its own Global Influenza Preparedness Plan, which has since been updated.

One pandemic in 1918 resulted in the death of more than 40 million people, while two more — in 1957 and 1968 — killed a further 3 million people between them.

Prof Hall said that the emergence of the H5N1 virus — also known as avian or bird flu — since 1997 had heightened concerns of a possible pandemic, although H5N1 has not seen any human-to-human spread.

As there is currently no pandemic vaccine, enough antiviral Tamiflu has been ordered here to cater for 25% of the population, and enough Rulenza for a further 20% of the population. The stocks will be received in the next six months, meaning Ireland will have the second highest anti-viral stocks in Europe.