Country ‘will be fully prepared for flu pandemic’

THE country will be fully prepared for a possible influenza pandemic, an expert group said yesterday, while admitting that an unprecedented worst case scenario could result in the deaths of up to 53,000 people.

The Department of Health and the Health Service Executive yesterday published two documents relating to the outbreak of a possible pandemic and the State response: The Pandemic Influenza Preparedness for Ireland: Advice of the Pandemic Influenza Expert Group, and the National Pandemic Influenza Plan, aimed primarily at the public.

Professor Bill Hall, chairman of the Pandemic Influenza Expert Group, said it had two scenarios as a possible model for the number of people falling ill and fatalities in the event of a pandemic: one based on the 1959 pandemic, in which there would be a 25% infection rate involving around one million people, resulting in 6,000 hospitalisations and some 4,000 deaths; and a worst case scenario, based on an unprecedented infection rate of 50%, would result in a “catastrophic situation”, he said. Up to 78,000 people would be hospitalised and some 53,000 people could die, although he stressed that this scenario was highly unlikely.