NCB report augurs well for growth of economy
The number of immigrants arriving in the Republic is also set to remain high, according to a study by NCB stockbrokers.
Its findings on future population trends augurs well for future growth, as the strength of the Irish economy over the past decade has been largely attributed to the Republic’s highly educated young population and net inward migration.
NCB’s European Population Outlook 2020, using official UN and EU statistics, predicts that Ireland’s baby boom relative to the rest of the EU is likely to continue over the next 15 years. Three in 10 Irish people in 2010 will be aged under 15, according to the report.
In contrast, many other countries in western Europe are suffering from an ageing population, which could impact negatively on their respective economies over the same period.
The report states the Republic’s population will have an average 2% increase per annum up to 2010, the highest of any EU state and a growth rate over 50% above other countries with a rising young population.
Between 2010 and 2020, only Ireland and Luxembourg among the EU 25 will experience population growth rates above 1% per annum as a result of rising births and immigration.
Ireland is also likely to have the lowest death rate of anywhere in Europe, with just over seven per 1,000 by 2010.
“Positive demographic influences in Ireland can continue to underpin strong growth in the economy until 2010,” said the study’s author, NCB senior economist, Eunan King.
The report estimates that the 15-64 age group will rise more sharply in Ireland than in any other EU country, well ahead of Luxembourg, Cyprus, Britain and France.
As a result, having a population with the highest proportion of working age adults (aged 15-64) in Europe and the lowest percentage of people aged over 65 should provide a further boost for future economic performance in Ireland.
However, dependency levels across Europe are set to rise sharply after 2010, due to the growing number of children and pensioners.
Mr King said the Irish economy was in line to benefit from further growth due to the increasing number of its population in economically active age groups.
The report estimates that the overall population of the existing 25 EU member states will remain largely unchanged up to 2020.
A small increase in the population of the original 15 member states will be offset by a decline in the 10 new accession states, most notably in the three Baltic states and Hungary.
The report estimates that Ireland will have the third highest rate of net immigration up to 2010 after Luxembourg and Cyprus.
