Cancer cases to double in next 15 years
Published by the National Cancer Registry it predicts that cancer numbers will have increased from 22,000 a year at present to up to 43,000 by 2020.
And the number of potentially fatal cancers will more than double — from 13,800 to 28,800 over the same period.
About two-thirds of this increase is expected to be due to the growing number of elderly people in the population and the remainder to upward trends in the incidence of some of the common cancers.
Some of the largest increases are expected in prostate cancer — numbers are expected to almost treble between 2000 and 2020.
Liver cancer is expected to almost treble in both men and women, with the rate for women slightly higher.
Kidney cancer cases are expected to increase by 160% for women and 200% for men, while melanoma (skin cancer) will increase by 130% in women and 170% in men.
Breast cancer numbers are expected to increase by 146% between now and 2020.
Only cancer of the head and neck in men is predicted to fall. A reduction of about a third is predicted.
The registry warn the rise in cancer cases will place a major additional burden on services and says the State must make preparations to deal with development.
Director of the National Cancer Registry, Dr Harry Comber, said improvements in cancer survival now being seen, together with the increasing number of elderly patients, would also create a greater need for cancer aftercare services.
This would require a more active approach of the management of cancer in the elderly.
“If this future cancer burden is to be reduced, action needs to be taken now, both to deal with known risk factors and to identify others, as cancer risk in 2020 will be largely determined by current exposures,” he said.
He stressed, however, that reducing risk would only partly solve the problem, as most of the expected increase in cancer numbers would be caused by the growing number of older people in the population.
Most cancers (65% in men and 54% in women) occur in the population over 65.
Dr Comber said there had been and would continue to be a significant increase in the number of breast cancer cases reported. While the cause for the increase cannot be pinpointed, it is thought that it is due to an increase in overweight and obesity.
Women who menstruate earlier in life are thought to be at greater risk because their exposure to oestrogen is increased.
Also believed to be at an increased risk are women who are breastfeeding for shorter periods.
Breastfeeding is believed to provide protection against breast cancer.
