Government ‘getting ready to tackle flu pandemic’
Influenza pandemics took place worldwide in 1918, 1957 and 1968 — with 1918 the most serious outbreak.
Experts predict another pandemic will occur in the coming years, and estimate that up to 5,000 people could die in such an outbreak with 14,000 possibly requiring hospitalisation.
The expected pandemic will not necessarily follow on from the international bird flu outbreak, as, so far, the H5N1 strain of the virus has largely remained a bird-to-bird infection, with the small numbers of humans infected being limited to those working in the poultry industry or with domestic birds.
However, the worldwide fear is that the poultry virus could mutate, leading to human-to-human infection, and hence cause the next pandemic.
Speaking at the 2006 National Immunisation Conference in Cork, organised by the HSE Southern Area, Director of the Health Protection Surveillance Centre (HPSC), Darina Flanagan, said the Government has stockpiled enough H5N1 vaccine to treat 200,000 healthcare workers.
“This could provide some protection at the time of the pandemic but the point here is that we don’t know what strain will cause the flu pandemic. We must wait and see.
“If it is a mutated form of H5N1, then the stockpile could provide some protection but it will be 4-6 months after the outbreak of the pandemic before a full vaccine, aimed at this particular strain, will be in place. The pandemic could be caused by any A1 virus,” she said.
An advance purchase order of the mutated strain vaccine has already been made by the Department of Health and anti-viral drugs have also been stockpiled to deal with a flu pandemic.
Up to 48,000 doses of anti-viral drugs have already been acquired, with another 600,000 doses due this year and a further 400,000 next year.
“There is a large number of clinical influenza trials taking place around the world and the Government is doing great work to ensure we are as prepared as we can be,” she added yesterday.
Experts agree that predicting the exact date of the pandemic is like predicting an earthquake. “We know that factors are in place for one to happen but don’t know exactly when it will strike,” said Ms Flanagan.
It’s estimated that the shortest interval between pandemics is 11 years and the longest is 39. It is now 37 years since the last influenza pandemic in 1968, which claimed 800,000 lives.
