Nice Treaty Yes voters have slight edge, says opinion poll

AN opinion poll released yesterday gives a slight edge to a Yes vote in the upcoming Nice Treaty referendum, but also found almost half the electorate is undecided.

The private poll commissioned by Citigroup Inc found 29% would vote in favour of passing the treaty, which voters rejected last year, while 19% would vote No.

The telephone survey of 939 people found 9% did not intend to vote while 44% were undecided, Citigroup said.

“The poll suggests that a Yes vote is slightly more likely than a No vote, but that the outcome is very uncertain,” Citigroup said in a statement.

“In particular, the high level of undecided voters could swing the outcome either way.”

The poll by Millward Brown IMS also found women were generally more sceptical or negative towards the treaty than men. The Dáil is winding up two days of debate this week on the enabling legislation for the referendum, after which a date for the vote will be announced.

It is expected in mid to late October.

The electorate’s rejection of the referendum by 54%-46% was a major setback to plans to admit 12 new countries to the European Union, most of them in eastern Europe. The Government has gone back to the drawing board to win over public support for the treaty, which must be ratified by all 15 existing European Union members before the end of the year, or it will be scrapped.

The last opinion poll by the Market Research Bureau of Ireland, released in May before the general election, showed opinion drifting towards a No vote.

Voters are concerned about the treaty for a number of reasons, including the possibility that it could chip away at Ireland’s traditional military neutrality or lead to an influx of immigrants from eastern Europe.

The Government has sought to reassure the public by obtaining a declaration from other European Union member States that Ireland would not be compelled to participate in the EU’s Rapid Reaction Force and has contested suggestions immigrants would flood Ireland.