FF must woo Fiesta Man
ONE of the key factors behind the British Labour Party's breakthrough in 1997 was its successful wooing of a creature called Mondeo Man. This was a voter who was relatively prosperous and already aspired to own the Ford automobile of that name.
When Tony Blair whooshed back into power four years later, Mondeo Man was no more. The new putative voter whose support was critical was now Galaxy Man. This marked a tangible step-up the targeting of a critical constituency who had done well under New Labour, and now owned, or could afford to own, a people-carrier. This constituency had good earning power but coupled it with a more caring attitude for the environment and for their fellow human beings. In another era they might have voted Tory or for the Liberal Democrats but Labour's sure-footed mastery of the British economy had won their support.
In Ireland, there was a time when all parties could not afford to target anything other than Jalopy Man. But a decade of unprecedented growth has conspired to usher the Fianna Fáil-Progressive Democrats government into gleaming and glassy showrooms in their search for its key voter. Indeed, as you read through the hard recriminatory words that followed the pasting the Coalition took in the local elections ten days ago, you would be forgiven for thinking that the Ford Motor Company can no longer cater for this Government's nouveaux riche mind-set.
Certainly, there's a fair whack of Fianna Fáil backbenchers who believe that its political bosses can only win with a category of voter that could be best described as Mercedes Man.
The reaction last weekend wasn't all that surprising. The Government was always going to get a bruising and the Pavlovian stuff was to be expected.
In the day or two that followed, a string of Fianna Fáil backbenchers loudly chorused their criticisms. Most pointed the finger predictably at the PDs and its disproportionate sway on the direction of the Government.
John Minihan, the Cork PD senator, was quite correct when he identified the seven or eight who come out to air their grievances publicly as the "usual suspects", the permanent core of backbenchers who are faintly malcontent and constantly at the ready to do a bit of carping.
BUT there was a fair deal of collateral damage. While Bertie Ahern had mollified any sense of over-panicky reaction at the parliamentary party meeting, some 30 TDs still felt compelled to speak out, most of whom had some choice criticisms to make of the direction the Government was taking. The charge, repeated by many, was that the elephant was taking its orders from the mouse.
Cork East Ned O'Keeffe, a sometimes dissenting voice but also an astute observer, put his finger on it when speaking to the Irish Examiner last week.
He said it was an exercise in futility for Fianna Fáil to look for whipping boys, be they the PDs or Sinn Féin. A party with nigh on eighty TDs and in the most advantageous position of any political party for two decades should ultimately be the master of its destiny, he argued.
And for O'Keeffe, the unmistakable signs were that the vast wealth created in Irish society over the past seven years had gone in one direction, towards those who were already wealthy.
Fianna Fail had only itself to blame, he said. The agenda of the PDs was clear from the Programme for Government set out in 2002. Fianna Fáil had control of the social and caring ministries to counterbalance the pro-enterprise and market liberalisation tendencies of the smaller party. That it had singularly failed to do. The upshot was that FF had contrived to abandon its own bedrock support, who had backed the party through thick and thin for almost 80 years.
Back in the 1930s, De Valera had mourned the lost opportunity that was Fianna Fáil and the Labour Party being one. He argued this on the basis that both appealed to, and stood by, the same natural constituency, the dispossessed. Over the years, FF evolved from that, prided itself on its catch-all appeal, concomitantly attractive to the wealthiest and most humble in society, to the entrepreneur and labourer alike. But for some of its more left-leanings TDs, the 'little people' have been written out of the equation over its seven-years of cohabitation with the PDs.
It must have been galling for Bertie Ahern to scan the front pages of the Sunday newspapers yesterday and see nothing about the Irish presidency's historic achievement in brokering a new European Constitution. Instead, the headlines were still dominated by the election fallout and the prospect of something that seemed unimaginable a month ago the meltdown of the country's longest and most successful coalition partnership.
This will be fuelled by two events in the immediate aftermath of the elections.
Within two days, there was a high-level stand-off between Minister for Finance Charlie McCreevy and Tánaiste Mary Harney over the proposed break-up of Aer Rianta. Though the differences were ultimately bandaged over after an exhausting three days of continuous negotiations, the signs of ideological tensions were apparent. For Harney, the dissolution of Aer Rianta is a core issue for the PDs. But now, she has found that one of her erstwhile soul-mates in cabinet, McCreevy, was now raising the strongest objections.
And then this weekend, Minister for Communications Dermot Ahern delivered a speech that has huge corrosive potential. A close ally of the Taoiseach, the Louth Minister seemed to be redrawing the map, inserting a new Maginot line. In what could be taken as a shot across the bows, he made arch references to speeches by Mary Harney and Michael McDowell that have come to encapsulate the PD philosophy in the public mind. Ahern dissed the notion that Ireland was closer to Boston than Berlin; also took an underhand cut at Michael McDowell's infamous 'inequality is good' speech, saying that FF rejected the 'winner takes all' approach to society.
The problem for this Coalition is that perception often equates to reality in the mind of the electorate. The hackneyed old cliché that the PD tail is wagging the FF dog is one that seems to have become deeply embedded, though the evidence does not fully bear it out.
In fairness, to the PDs, when they went canvassing during the election, their supporters accused them of being indistinguishable from their larger coalition partner. But for FF, it was worse in electoral terms, accused of being outplayed and overshadowed by the PDs and its two ministers.
Two promises are laid successively early in the Programme for Government document. The first pledges to keep public finances healthy, keep down personal and business taxes, maintain the competitive position of the economy.
The second pledges to improve the quality of public services and deliver real improvements to pensioners and people on low incomes.
Both could almost be classic summaries of the PD and FF philosophies.
But there's no escaping the fact that while delivery has been strong on the first (the PD agenda) it has been sadly lacking in the second, that could or should encapsulate everything that FF stands for.
In perception terms, the evidence seems to have stacked up. If you parse through the Programme for Government the bulk of the activism seems to be on the PD side. The break-up of Aer Rianta, the liberalisation of State-controlled transport, unswervable fealty to a low-tax regime, the introduction of public-private partnerships for infrastructure projects, the Treatment Purchase Fund and insurance reforms are all associated with Mary Harney on its colleagues.
CONVERSELY, when you look at the litany of undelivered commitments, most of them seem to fall unfortunately on the FF side of the pitch.
The problem with FF achieving the 'caring and sharing' side of its mandate for Government arose out of the corrective measures taken soon after the 2002 election. McCreevy's strictures that Department's cleave to the CLS rule (Current Level of Spending) torpedoed any hopes that the social ministries could deliver their promises. And thus, the school buildings programme and reducing the pupil-teacher ratio lags far behind the election promise.
This month, the deadline for providing an extra 3,000 beds in Irish hospitals (and thereby reducing hospital waiting lists) passed with the Department of Health being, erm, almost 3,000 shy of the target.
Promises to place 80% of taxpayers on the standard rate are outrageously off-kilter. As are promises to decrease the numbers living in consistent poverty, pledges to increase pension and social welfare payments to a basic €200 by 2007 as well as a promise to provide 0.7% of GDP for overseas development by the same year.
The list goes on. The Programme referred three times to people with intellectual disabilities being inappropriately placed in mental hospitals. The promise to reduce that to zero has gone some of the way but not all of the way.
The long-promised disability legislation has also yet to see the light of day, despite repeated promises from the Government.
And the eye-catching stuff that the Government has come up with to counter those criticisms decentralisation and electronic voting rebounded disastrously in the election.
There are two exceptions to all that. One of the core promises of Government to increase the number of Gardaí by 2,000 has not been delivered by the PD Minister for Justice Michael McDowell. And one eye-catching policy has worked the smoking ban seemed to have lifted the siege that fell upon Health Minister Micheal Martin in the 12 months following the election.
While there is much economic merit underlying McCreevy's arguments for fiscal prudence, a perception has gone abroad that the shutters haven't slammed down for the State's richest people. In the budget last December, he pointed out that tax breaks on property, films and the gee-gees favour the wealthiest in society and expressed his discomfiture at this.
But at the same time he decided to retain them for another two to four years, thus extending a tax exemption that he himself concedes is unfair. And at the same time, the Minister for Social Affairs Mary Coughlan was forced to inflict the 'Savage Sixteen' cuts under the CLS rule.
THERE are other undertows. FF hasn't managed to parry criticisms that some of its key ministers are, in the context of the PDs, 'níos Gaelaí ná na Gaeil féin'.
Things that seem small in the overall scheme of things assume a huge importance as being symptomatic of unfairness.
County favouritism in sports grants, a government PR contract being allotted to a company with strong FF associations, and the deal finessed between McCreevy and Agriculture Minister Joe Walsh on Punchestown have all been damaging.
The latter has acquired the same purchase in the public imagination as John Bruton's tax on children's shoes over 20 years ago.
Can Fianna Fáil rediscover its soul in time for the next elections? And, more importantly, will that return to its core values begin to set the PDs adrift after seven years of government?
Are we beginning to see Fianna Fáil trade down from the Mercedes and begin an elusive search to find a putative voter, shorthanded as Fiesta Man.
Keep down personal and business taxes.
Active pursuance of public-private partnership (PPP) projects.
Tackle high costs of insurance, particularly motor and employer liability cover.
Establish the Personal Injuries Assessment Board.
Allow for new services in the bus market.
Establish Iarnród Éireann as an independent State company.
Develop the metro for Dublin on a PPP basis.
Examine proposals for a new independent terminal at Dublin Airport.
Continue to transform Aer Rianta.
Most appropriate form of ownership or structure for State companies on a case-by-case basis.
Ensure that 80% of all earners pay tax only at the standard rate those on average industrial wage pay tax at the higher rate.
Support the positive role of the Community Employment Scheme numbers dramatically cut back by Department of Employment and Enterprise in the past two years.
Establish a dedicated Traffic Corps.
Assist voluntary housing sector to reach target of 4,000 accommodation units per annum.
Ensure comprehensive homelessness strategies are implemented.
Expand public hospital beds to increase total capacity by 3,000.
Expand appropriate care places for people with disabilities.
Reduce the pupil-teacher ratio in schools for children under nine to 20:1.
Ensure that every school building attains set modern standards.
(Garda) numbers will increase by 2,000 PD minister.
Increase basic State pension to €200 by 2007.
(Extracts from FF-PD Programme for Government 2002-2007).
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