Seat losses destroy FF dominance on local councils

WE have lost the election, admitted Taoiseach Bertie Ahern yesterday before candidly adding: "I have lost over 20% of my council seats."

It was not just seats that Fianna Fáil lost but control of the dozen or so county councils that it had secured in the 1999 election.

As FF and PD strategists survey the wreckage this week after the demolition of its strong local base, there will be precious little comfort to take from any of the results in any of the local authorities.

After its triumphant performance in 1999, Fianna Fáil moved into positions of control in a number of key councils, namely Cavan, Galway, Louth, Mayo and Westmeath.

It was also within a seat or two of a majority in Donegal, Limerick, Kerry, Kilkenny and Meath.

But all were swept away from Fianna Fáil during a bruising weekend. The most egregious loss was undoubtedly Kilkenny where the party plummeted from holding 12 of the 26 seats to retaining a lowly five.

But worse was the fall of the party's traditional strongholds of Clare, Laois and North Tipperary to the opposition. Fianna Fáil had retained outright control of these councils since 1991.

In Tipperary North its representation slipped from 12 to 10 of the 21 council seats; in Clare it dropped from 18 to 15 of the 32 seats and in Laois it fell from 14 to 11 of the 25 seats.

There was little comfort in any local authority for the party, where it can now only hope to share control through the most convoluted and complicated of transfer arrangements.

Given that the huge turnout delivered a decisive anti-government message, it is likely that opposition parties will be reluctant to get into any alliance with either FF or the PDs.

Conversely, Fine Gael has finished in a strong position to control several key councils including Longford, Cork County and Waterford Country; with Labour looking the strongest in terms of controlling the four borough councils in Dublin; Galway City Council and Limerick (where independents will determine which grouping will control the council).

Fianna Fáil did particularly poorly in urban areas. In Waterford its representation was reduced to a single councilor (down from three) and in Limerick City its vote collapsed completely to only two seats following a slide of over 11% in support.

Likewise, the party's dismal performance in Kilkenny will be scrutinised closely. From a position of a near majority, the party lost seven of its 12 seats and has been totally eclipsed by Fine Gael, which saw its representation increase to nine.

The most intriguing negotiations may revolve around Sinn Féin. The party has equalled and bettered both of the traditional parties in Monaghan and one or other will have to make a deal with SF to win control.

In Dublin City Council there has been talk of a "Guns and Roses" alliance between Sinn Féin and Labour. SF has upped its seat numbers from four to 10 and Labour is now the largest grouping with 15.

But the most likely scenario to emerge there may be a portent of the alternative government on a national level.

Labour is likely to try to forge an alliance with FG (10 seats) and the Green Party, which has retained only one councillor. That will leave the rainbow arrangement with 26 seats out of the 52 and it's likely that independent candidate Mick Rafferty could find himself in the position of kingmaker, in much the same way as his mentor, Tony Gregory, found himself in the early 1980s, when he forged the "Gregory Deal" as a quid pro quo for supporting Charles J Haughey as Taoiseach.