Bruton’s seat in danger of going to FF

FINE Gael appears in danger of losing the Dáil seat which former leader John Bruton held for 35 years in Meath, a new opinion poll has indicated.

If the poll findings are realised, it would be a disastrous result for leader Enda Kenny, undermining the progress he has made in rebuilding the party.

The new holder of the seat, vacated by Mr Bruton when he became the EU’s ambassador to the US, will be decided in a by-election on Friday. Bookmakers had made Fine Gael’s Cllr Shane McEntee a narrow favourite ahead of Fianna Fáil Cllr Shane Cassells.

But the independent opinion poll shows Mr Cassells commanding 36.7% of first preferences.

In contrast, Mr McEntee is commanding just 20.4% of first preferences, which if accurate, would see him struggle to retain the seat for Fine Gael.

Transfers are going to play a crucial role. Mr McEntee will be hoping to garner transfers from Labour’s Dominic Halligan, with whose party Fine Gael has agreed a transfer pact.

Surprisingly, given the fallout Sinn Féin was thought to have suffered recently, the poll indicated an increase in the vote of its candidate, Cllr Joe Reilly.

Mr Reilly commanded 14.9% of first preferences in the poll, up from 9.4% in the 2002 general election.

However, while polling strongly on first preferences, he did not appear to pick up transfers. Sinn Féin transfers appeared predominantly to go to Mr Cassells.

The opinion poll, carried out by Orchard Research & Analysis on behalf of the Meath Chronicle newspaper, was conducted last Friday, Saturday and Monday, and featured a sample of 502 people across all five electoral areas in Co Meath.

Meanwhile, the Fianna Fáil candidate in the Kildare North by-election, which also takes place on Friday, conceded yesterday that the Government had failed to deliver adequate infrastructure for the area.

Kildare North has witnessed huge population growth in recent years after becoming part of the Dublin commuter belt, but while housing estates have sprung up, there is a shortage of public transport options, school facilities and affordable childcare.

“There’s a huge catch-up, a huge deficit there,” Áine Brady said of the Government’s record on the issue.

Speaking on RTÉ Radio, she said she was “not afraid to criticise the Government”, but she stressed “a lot of money” had been invested in Kildare North.

The by-election in Kildare North was caused by the departure of Charlie McCreevy to Europe.

Independent councillor Catherine Murphy is the favourite to take the seat.