The lowdown on EU enlargement

Ann Cahill, European Correspondent

Treaties are the way the leaders of the governments of the member states, including Ireland, formally agree changes to the EU. After being negotiated by the leaders a treaty must then be ratified, either by the parliament or people in each country.

Why this latest Treaty?

Cyprus and Malta and 10 countries that were trapped behind the Iron Curtain for the past 50 years want to be part of the EU.

The former East Bloc states see it as returning to the European family and believe it will protect them from big brother Russia.

The bodies that organise the EU Council of Ministers, European Parliament, European Commission have not been changed since the Union was set up 45 years ago with six members. Without changes the bodies would be unwieldy, the member states' leaders decided.

So how will Nice streamline the EU?

It re-fixes the number of MEPs for each country to keep the Parliament at 732 members; It resets the number of Commissioners to no more than 26 and allows the Commission president to hand out the portfolios; It reduces the number of issues the countries can use their veto on; It re-weighs the votes of each member state so that Ireland will have 2%.

So do we lose a Commissioner if we accept Nice?

Yes though it could be as infrequently as every 130 years. If the EU grows to 27 members the ten existing candidates and two more one country will lose its right to appoint a Commissioner.

With a 27-country EU and a five-year term for commissioners as at present this would mean each country, including Ireland, would lose a commissioner every 130 years.

Is this a done deal?

Nice says the member country ministers must decide the exact number of commissioners and how long a country will lose a commissioner for. It leaves it open to appoint junior commissioners for instance.

What about the five big countries Germany, France, Britain, Spain and Italy that currently have two commissioners? They lose their second commissioner from 2005 and under Nice will lose their one commissioner the same as every other country in rotation once membership reaches 27.

Do we lose MEPs?

Yes. We go from 15 to 12 and it will be up to the Government to decide on the constituencies and how many MEPs in each. This means our representation drops from 2.2% to 2.02% while our population ratio in the EU is .8%.

Does Nice give a better deal to the smaller countries than to the bigger countries?

Size does not matter when it comes to having a commissioner. In the parliament the smaller countries get a proportionally better deal with Germany for instance having fewer MEPs than its population share would suggest and Ireland having more.

What about this weighted voting?

Some of the bigger countries losing a commissioner wanted to try and gain something when it came to the member country Ministers voting the Council.

Does this mean the big countries rule?

Certainly not if the EU enlarges to bring in the 12 new countries, including Bulgaria and Romania in the next round.

Even if all six big countries, including Poland, gang up together they will not have enough votes to outweigh the 21 small countries of which seven will be smaller than Ireland.

What about the veto where any country can just say no and have a proposal thrown out?

The leaders agreed to reduce the number of issues each state can use the veto on and introduced more decision making by qualified majority vote of governments. The European Parliament's role in law-making continues to grow. Ireland used the veto once in a row over dairy policy.

Can we still veto any changes to a country's tax situation?

Yes, any changes to tax or to the treaties requires unanimity.

Does Nice endanger our neutrality?

No.

But what about this European Army?

This was agreed under the Amsterdam Treaty and Nice brings it in under the Political and Security Committee made up of ministers from the member states.

Dubbed the Rapid Reaction Force, its brief is to provide peacekeeping, peace enforcing and crisis management. There will be no standing army but each member state, including Ireland, has agreed to pledge a total of 60,000 troops to the EU force.

How does this affect our neutrality?

Under long-standing Irish legislation the army cannot be used as part of a military pact such as NATO. They can take part only in actions sanctioned by the United Nations and approved by the Dáil.

Is there any reference to our neutrality in the Nice Treaty?

No, but the same clause from the Amsterdam and Maastricht Treaties refer to not prejudicing the specific character of the security and defence policy of certain member states.

Is the declaration agreed at the last summit meeting of EU heads on Ireland's neutrality part of the Nice Treaty?

No. Back in 1992 Denmark got an opt-out clause on defence added into the Maastrict Treaty after their electorate first rejected it. The Irish Government was anxious to avoid such a declaration.

The Danes have found it difficult to contribute even to peacekeeping as a result of their clause.

Ireland got a declaration on neutrality which has political, but not necessarily legal, force.

Does Nice create a two-speed Europe?

It allows for a two-speed EU in that it agrees that if a minimum of eight countries that want to they can cooperate in specific areas, with or without the agreement of the remaining members.

Excluded from this is anything to do with security or the single market.

Does the Treaty create a super-state?

No, but it did say that work should begin on looking at the future of the EU and how it should develop.

This work has already begun with the Convention on the Future of Europe having regular sessions in Brussels debating the possibilities.

Ireland like all the other EU states is playing a role in this and Ireland, apart from Denmark, is the only small country represented on the management committee for the Convention. Member state leaders will have a conference in 2004 to take decisions on the future EU.

Does a Yes to Nice mean anyone from the candidate countries can come and live in Ireland?

The Government has reneged on its offer to accept people from new member states from the date of their entry.

Ireland will instead go along with the general EU agreement that will mean no free movement for at least two years, and possibly another five.

People in the candidate countries have visa-free entry at present and about 800,000, half of them illegal, work mostly on a temporary basis in the EU from the candidate countries at present. Freedom of movement will change the status of the illegals while studies suggest up to 100,000 a year extra may want to come.

Will Ireland help get a better deal for the candidate countries by voting No?

The negotiations have been going on for at least three years between the EU and the candidate countries under 30 headings such as agriculture and the environment. These negotiations must be complete before they can join, and negotiations are expected to end by December.

They are each battling for the best deal for their country and looking for more time to introduce some of the most far-reaching EU legislation. The Nice Treaty will not affect this.

Will a No to Nice by the Irish stop enlargement?

Doubtful. Fourteen of the member states have said they want to enlarge.

Many of the leaders say enlargement is inevitable and unstoppable. But they will have to find a way around an Irish no.

Can Ireland suffer from voting No to Nice?

Not officially. But the reality is that the EU operates through discussion, doing deals and reaching compromises with the other member states.

Ireland being one of the poorer and smaller states has got more funding and concessions than it has been strictly entitled from the other EU members.

Our civil servants in Brussels have managed to make the most of the goodwill and native negotiating skills of a small country.

But Ireland, having voted to keep the new members out, could not expect much sympathy from them when we all end up around a table negotiating for money for farmers or simply greater understanding on bringing our finances into order.

Would a no to Nice affect our business climate?

We would still have access to the market of 380 million people in the EU and an additional 75 million in the candidates for our products. Consumers in the new states might not be well disposed towards our products.

Why a referendum in Ireland?

The Treaties are seen as part of our Constitution and any changes to them must, according to the Supreme Court, be put to the people.

Is Ireland unusual in holding referendums?

Ireland is the only country putting Nice to a vote. The others allow their elected representatives in Government to decide.

How popular is the Nice Treaty?

Not very. It took four days of negotiations round-the-clock in the French city of Nice in December 2000 to come up with the set of compromises that is now the Treaty.

Who has ratified it so far?

All the other 14 countries have ratified it now with Belgium being the last in August.

The 15 EU states have until December 31 to ratify it or otherwise.

Is an Irish Yes to Nice the final obstacle to enlargement in 2004?

No. First the European Commission, later this month, will issue its report on whether the countries have met the criteria to join.

Each country will then have a referendum on membership, possibly beginning in June.