FF faces the polls with mixed prospects

BERTIE broke bread one last time with his candidates ahead of the Meath and Kildare North by-elections yesterday. Or, more accurately, he broke pancakes.

The Taoiseach had summoned the candidates, Shane Cassells and Aine Brady, to his political heartland in Drumcondra for one last photo-shoot over breakfast before voting in both by-elections begins tomorrow.

But there was no traditional Irish fry-up. Instead, it was pancakes all round at Café Chicco D'Oro, Bertie breaking his in two before wolfing them down.

The fortunes of his candidates have also broken two ways. In Meath, Mr Cassells is in a close battle with Fine Gael councillor Shane McEntee, and has a reasonable chance of winning the seat vacated by John Bruton. Should Mr Cassells win, Fianna Fáil would hold four of the five seats in the constituency.

In Kildare North, however, Aine Brady appears to be some distance behind in the running for Charlie McCreevy's old seat, and Fianna Fáil faces the prospect of no longer having a TD in the three-seater constituency after the weekend. Independent councillor Catherine Murphy remains the favourite for the seat, with Labour councillor Paddy McNamara also strongly in the running.

In truth, though, the press conference was dominated by another organisation used to fighting campaigns, albeit of a very different nature. The IRA's statement on the McCartney murder issued on Tuesday had "shocked" the Government, the Taoiseach said, and the matter very much overshadowed talk of the by-elections.

Interestingly, despite the political fallout from the McCartney murder and the Northern Bank robbery, Sinn Féin's candidate in Meath, Joe Reilly, appears to be increasing his vote if the results of an opinion poll in the Meath Chronicle newspaper are to be believed. The poll showed him commanding just under 15% of first preferences.

"Ninety-seven percent of issues that are coming up are localised," Mr Reilly said. "The 3% issues are the McCartney killing, mostly, with a little of the bank robbery. The bank robbery has had no great effect sympathy for the bank is probably a lot lower than it would be for McCartney."

Mr Reilly, however, will need more than the loyal vote to get elected. The poll results will cheer him, no doubt. But one party distinctly not impressed with the poll was Fine Gael, as it showed its candidate faring poorly. FG disputes the accuracy of the poll, to say the very least.

Party leader Enda Kenny also held a final photo-shoot with his by-election candidates yesterday, as did Labour leader Pat Rabbitte and Green Party leader Trevor Sargent.