Old certainties changing as contest goes down to wire

GALWAY CITY is unusual. There are the PDs riding high in the national polls with a vertigo-inducing 3% or 4%.

Labour are soaring at dizzying 4% in the polls for the locals in North-West. Yet, in Galway both parties between them account for six of the 15 seats on the city council, with FF and FG making up the balance. The reasons why the pattern is aberrant are not complex. It can be ascribed wholly to just two influences Bobby Molloy and Michael D Higgins, both of whom hold huge sway in the city.

But like other Irish cities, old certainties are changing. The FF-FG hegemony is being challenged here. With Mr Molloy gone, the PDs look in danger of dropping one or more of their seats. Labour may be on the rise. The Greens could finally make its long-anticipated breakthrough here. And in a city with no tradition of republicanism in recent times, Sinn Féin could also pull one out of the hat to return one councillor.