Heney likely to replace Haughey if he resigns

THE possibility of Dublin North Central TD Sean Haughey withdrawing from politics was widely discounted yesterday as others in the constituency eyed up the impact such a move would bring.

Currently a four-seater constituency, it will be reduced to just three seats in the next general election, leaving independent TD Finian McGrath in difficulty with or without the presence of the Haughey name on polling day.

With former Junior Transport Minister Ivor Callelly and deputy Fine Gael leader Richard Bruton making up the remaining two seats, McGrath's fate was dealt a severe blow by the latest boundary changes.

While the withdrawal of Sean Haughey would give some hope to the McGrath camp, the likely Fianna Fáil replacement, Deirdre Heney, will prove difficult to beat, especially if she attracts a fair number of the Haughey votes and transfers from Ivor Callely.

Both Fianna Fáil TDs are consummate vote-getting machines, with Haughey topping the poll in 2002, while Callelly topped the poll the previous time around. Nevertheless, Mr McGrath picks up a fair number of second preferences from Haughey and would welcome the opportunity to turn some of those into first preference votes.

Ms Heney, who just missed out in North Central at the last election, withdrew her name at the last minute in July's convention after Fianna Fáil decided to run just two candidates.

At the time, she criticised the decision, saying she hoped she could convince the party to change its mind on the strategy.

A councillor since 1999, she is also a full-time worker in the office of Minister of State for housing Noel Ahern.

Prior to this week's developments there had been speculation that she may seek selection in another Dublin constituency.

Q&A

Q: Why did it take nine weeks to appoint a replacement for Ivor Callely?

A: Rapid movement has never been the Taoiseach's style. There was speculation he was trying to ease retiring TD Síle de Valera from her junior position to allow a wider shake-up.

The near breakdown in the working relationship between Communication, Marine and Natural Resources Minister Noel Dempsey and his deputy Pat "The Cope" Gallagher over sea fishing laws added to the confusion as it became clear Mr Gallagher would have to be moved. The Tánaiste's visit to Canada delayed the decision for a further week.

Q: Why did he choose Mary Wallace?

A: The reasons spun by the Taoiseach's office included the need for gender balance and regret over the "unfair" criticism she received after the withdrawal of the Disability Bill she failed to get through the Dáil when a minister in 2002. However, as Bertie Ahern dropped her like a hot brick in 2002, the third notion of "electoral considerations" looks likely as Fianna Fáil aims for two of the three seats in the new Meath East constituency.

Q: Why not Sean Haughey?

A: Though popular with colleagues for his unassuming, no-nonsense style, he has remained on the back benches for 19 years. Some Fianna Fáil conspiracy theorists blame the PDs. Fear of the Haughey name returning to centre stage politics may also have been a consideration.

Q: What now for Fianna Fáil?

A: The handling of the reshuffle and its fallout has caused bitterness among backbenchers, however there is no serious challenger to Mr Ahern and the party knows it must look united ahead of the election expected within the next 15 months.

Q: How will this affect Bertie Ahern?

A: It will not help his image as a ditherer. The jury is out on his reputation for strategic cunning as the choice of Meath over northside Dublin may backfire.