Fianna Fáil may buck trend by holding seat

FIANNA FÁIL are in with a chance of holding their only seat in Kildare North following Finance Minister Charlie McCreevy’s departure to Brussels to become Ireland’s EU Commissioner.

While many analysts are predicting Fianna Fáil will face a tough by-election battle to retain their seat, the figures contradict this forecast.

Fianna Fáil bucked the national trend in Kildare North in the June local elections by holding their core vote - despite a lot of local anger with Mr McCreevy for failing to provide funds for local schools.

“The Fianna Fáil vote held up despite the anger with Mr McCreevy for investing €15 million in the Punchestown equestrian centre instead of local schools - that shows the party is well capable of holding its seat in Kildare North,” one local political analyst said.

Mr McCreevy also topped the poll in the last general election and Fianna Fáil got over 43% of the vote in the 2002 general election. Their second candidate, Paul Kelly, came within 134 votes of taking the second seat.

The other two sitting Kildare North TDs are Labour’s Emmet Stagg, who took the second seat, and Fine Gael’s Bernard Durkan, who took the third seat.

While both Labour and Fine Gael will be going all out to win the third seat, they do not have any particular strong local candidates.

“There is no one among the local Opposition candidates who could take the seat from Fianna Fáil at the moment unless they spring a surprise high profile candidate,” the local analyst said.

The only possible dark horse in the by-election is Independent Catherine Murphy who polled very well in the June local elections in the Leixlip commuter belt, but she will be competing for votes with Fianna Fáil’s most likely candidate, Paul Kelly.

Mr Kelly may face strong competition for the Fianna Fáil nomination from contenders that include Mr McCreevy’s personal assistant, Cllr Michael Fitzpatrick, Cllr Liam Doyle from Kilcock and Cllrs Willie Callaghan and Anthony Creevy from Naas.

Fine Gael has a number of strong contenders who include barrister Katie Ridge, Cllr Brendan Weld from Clane, Cllr Senan Griffin from Maynooth and Cllr Billy Hillis from Naas.

Possible contenders for Labour include Cllr John McGinley, likely to be a front-runner for the nomination, Cllr Kevin Byrne from Straffan and Cllr Paddy McNamara from Naas.

Senator Kate Walsh, who polled just over 11% in the 2002 general election, is likely to stand for the PDs.

The only declared candidate at the moment is student Fionnain Ó Coistin who stood as an Independent in the local and European elections.

This Government has failed to win a by-election since it first came to power in 1997, and Kildare North is its best chance in seven years of bucking that trend.