‘Parties go back into their trenches’

NATIONALISM in the North has always had a habit of renewing itself.

The last great metamorphosis occurred soon after the SDLP was formed when it totally eclipsed the old Nationalist Party.

Are we now witnessing the beginning of another seismic shift? Sinn Féin has become what the Westminster elections strongly suggested two years ago the undisputed leading nationalist party in the North.

In the process they have neatly reversed positions with the SDLP.

As the count result for the 108 seats from the 18 constituencies trickled in at an infuriatingly slow pace last night, a few strong patterns had already emerged. The smaller parties and independents, who took one vote out of nine in the last Assembly elections 1998, have been completely shredded. Their representation down from 18 to a possible eight or perhaps even six. The DUP has surged, picking up seats from smaller anti-Agreement parties and independents, especially in Belfast.

David Trimble's Ulster Unionist Party looks like it might just hold its own, but will have the DUP breathing down its neck as the largest unionist party.

For the SDLP, it was a long and bitterly disappointing day. Winning 24 seats in the last election (though one of its Assembly members had resigned from the party), the party had high hopes of retaining its own and possibly picking up extras seats in constituencies like North Antrim, South Antrim and Strangford. Indeed, Strangford brought the only glimmer of hope in an otherwise dark day, with the SDLP in the mix for the last of the six seats.

But elsewhere, the picture was altogether more bleak. Just after 6pm, in the Belfast Count Centre at Balmoral, the news emerged from the West Belfast count that Dr Joe Hendron the man who unseated Gerry Adams in the Wesminster elections in 1992 had been eliminated. It was emblematic of the day.

In Newry, South Armagh, the retirement of Seamus Mallon had also hit the party hard, with the SDLP

also looking like it could lose one of its own seats. In West Tyrone, the party looked likely to lose both of its seats, to a resurgent Sinn Féin and the emergence of a hospital candidate, Dr Kieran Deeney, campaigning to prevent the downgrading of Omagh Hospital. And in the party's stronghold of Foyle, party leader Mark Durkan's hope of bringing in two running mates was also under threat from Sinn Féin.

Overall, its percentage was down by 4.3%, reminiscent of the melt-down that befell Fine Gael last year.

In the Parliamentary elections two years ago, Sinn Féin had made huge advances west of the Bann. This time around, it was east of the Bann where the party made huge advances. In North Belfast, Gerry Kelly brought in a second seat. The party was tantalisingly close to winning five out of six seats in West Belfast (though Diana Dodds of the DUP was also very close), while in the affluent leafy suburbs of South Belfast, the party sprung a surprise performance.

Former Lord Mayor of Belfast Alex Maskey had transferred his base there from West Belfast and at the time of going to press was within a few hundred votes of taking a historic seat.

Another astonishing result was achieved by the party in Dr Ian Paisley's stronghold of North Antrim, with Philip McGuigan coming from nowhere to win a seat.

In the bigger picture, it seemed like there would be a complete reversal of the 1998 election result. Then Sinn Féin had won 18. Last night, it looked like it would surge to anywhere between 23 and 26 seats, with the outside possibility that it could become the North's largest party.

YESTERDAY afternoon, Sir Reg Empey of the UUP reminded reporters that he had predicted this scenario for the past years, and now it looked like it could become a reality.

For the SDLP, the party was facing a substantial slippage, looking at the prospect of slipping to 20 seats, or in the worst possible scenario to 18.

A palpably deflated Mark Durkan yesterday said the low turnout (64% compared to 69% five years ago) had affected the party. But he also conceded that there were other factors at play.

"The parties who are rewarded are the ones who created the problems and who can threaten to create the problems. They are the parties who have been rewarded," he said.

SDLP director of elections Bríd Rodgers talked about a process of polarisation in communities, as has happened with the riots in North Belfast.

"There are difficulties and violence on the streets. Parties have gone back into their trenches. We are going backwards rather than forwards."

Sinn Féin's Gerry Kelly rejected the polarisation view. "What people are doing. They are listening to the policies and watching the leadership of Sinn Féin driving the agenda for change and delivering on the process. There are people who are saying the vote has polarised. It's a bit more complicated than that. Nationalists want Sinn Féin to lead nationalism. They see us as better representatives."

The smaller parties have been decimated, with the DUP and Sinn Féin hoovering mopping up their seats. David Ervine of the PUP looked like retaining his seat in East Belfast, but the other MLA, Billy Hutchinson, saw his vote collapse in North Belfast. For the Alliance, the outcome was equally gloomy, seeing its representation of six MLA reduced by at least half.

The Women's Coalition also looked like being squeezed out completely.

David Trimble, who may not have the chance to become First Minister after the election, refused to be drawn on the overall outcome, preferring to comment in more general terms.

"The first objective now is the matter of compelling republicans that they have to abandon all elements of the military machine."