Identity crisis leaves party more Armalite than Armani

Sinn Féin is coming under increased pressure to get off the fence, says Political Editor Harry McGee.

AS you'd expect, the programme for this weekend's Sinn Féin Árd Fheis leans heavily on the native tongue. "Clár agus Rúin" it proclaims on the covering page in large lettering.

The conventional translation for this is 'Programme and Motions'. But many Irish words have multiple meanings and these ones throw up a second very different reading: 'Programme and Secrets'.

In a curious way, the second translation is probably a more meaningful one for all of Sinn Féin's political opponents North and South.

Little wonder that Ed Moloney entitled his seminal book on the party'salter-ego The Secret History of the IRA. Maloney's thesis was that within this organisation, whose secrets remained hermetically sealed on pain of death, there were secretive strategies unknown to many of its own membership.

It is important to record what Gerry Adams and Martin McGuinness have achieved in the past decade. It is undeniable that republicanism has travelled a long road since the IRA's first ceasefire in August 1994. It is true also that Sinn Féin has accepted the de facto legality of institutions and the Border (by accepting seats North and South). The IRA hasalso engaged (albeit grudgingly) in a decommissioning process that has seen it give up substantial tranches of arms. In the assessment of an astute observer, it has gone more than halfway in its journey to embrace full and transparent democracy.

But only halfway. In the run-up to 1994, Albert Reynolds privately liked to portray Sinn Féin as a trout that needed to be caught. Once the fish was hooked, he said, you could play it and it could wriggle. But eventually it would be reeled in. It's been a long playing of the trout. A decade later, the catch is not yet landed onto the bank.

Trying to get to the heart of Sinn Féin and the IRA is like looking through an opaque window that's iced up. For its own political, pragmatic and legal reasons Sinn Féin has continued to muddy the waters over the exact nature of its relationship with the IRA.

Michael McDowell surpassed himself in subtlety when describing Sinn Féin's complaints about corruption in the South as "vomit-making". But despite McDowell's abrasiveness, his observation that there are no Chinese walls between Sinn Féin and the IRA is obvious and uncontroversial to anyone who has more than a passing interest in the North.

And yet we still get all the denial. One of the party's five TDs in the Dáil neatly defined the cloud of ambiguity that still fugs around Sinn Féin when it comes to its status as a transparent democratic party. He described the killers of Det Garda Jerry McCabe thus: "[The] prisoners convicted of involvement in the tragic events that led to the death of Garda McCabe."

Later on this evening, Gerry Adams will step up to the podium in the RDS to deliver his address to the party faithful. Following Sinn Féin's exceptionally strong performance in the Assembly elections, the Árd Fheis would have provided a perfect ramp-up for the upcoming local and European elections. Electorally, Sinn Féin are on an inexorable rise that should see them make gains this summer, and at least double their Dáil representation in 2007.

But the events of last weekend have sullied all that and forced Sinn Féin onto the back foot over the party's commitment to the peace process. The party's line that the abduction of dissident republican Bobby Tohill wasn't "authorised" by the party leadership hasn't washed.

The annoyance of the Government with what it sees as Sinn Féin's duplicity was evident by an amazingly direct interview Taoiseach Bertie Ahern gave on Thursday.

Astonishingly, he went further than PSNI chief Hugh Orde had done in unambiguously blaming the IRA. And for good measure, he said he read reports every Monday that this kind of activity was ongoing. And for good measure he threw in 'Lenadoon', firing a shot across Adams's bows about what the IRA needs to do. It was seen as a clear sign of the growing frustration of the Irish and British Governments with Sinn Féin's obstinacy, which they now believe is stalling any progress.

Paradoxically, Mr Ahern's sideswipe at Mr Adams was seen by one insider on the Irish side as a tactical mistake. Mr Adams had remained silent all week about the abduction allegations but sprung from the traps once Mr Ahern started talking about Lenadoon, with a vintage retort about "Bertie-isms" and a "slip-of-the-tongue".

In some eyes, Mr Adams was using a classic Alastair Campbell ploy. He could easily choose to aggressively defend an old allegation while at the same time neatly deflecting attention from the central charge, the embarrassing evidence of continued IRA paramilitary activities.

"I thought it was unfortunate," said the insider. "The Taoiseach has allowed Sinn Féin to bring the current debate away from the central core issue.

"In the context of the Sinn Féin Árd Fheis, it will allow them to say: 'Everybody's against us. Let's rally together'".

There is an element of truth in Sinn Féin's argument that the series of attacks on the party led by Mr McDowell are nakedly political and motivated by fears that it is going to make further electoral inroads in the European andlocal elections. But it is only an element.

For the truth is that Sinn Féin is now regarded as the problem party in the peace process. Its Assembly success is beginning to look more like a pyrrhic victory because its gains came at the cost of commensurate gains for the DUP, which has led to increasing entrenchment into the 'No' camp for the UUP. What Sinn Féin delivered in October is history. Sinn Féin's sense of betrayal after Hillsborough failed is also history. "I don't think that Sinn Féin has yet got into the mentality that we are now into a changed context," says the insider.

"If they want to seriously engage with the DUP, they will have to bring the process forward.

"[The abduction last weekend] was a symptom of the problem that SF have. Here they are stalled in the process of moving between and armed struggle and exclusively peaceful means. We can see the end in sight. But it is they who have to be prepared to move there."

There are a couple of absorbing and problematic questions surrounding republicans' residual paramilitary activities. Already there are some in Government circles who believe Sinn Féin will not return to war. The corollary of that is that the IRA's arsenal has a diminishing leverage value. A poker player with lots of chips can force the game. But when the chips are dwindling, the opponents know that they can begin to push.

Both governments believe the next move must be made by republicans, that they must begin the final push.

"The only way forward is to respect that there are two traditions with two different identities, who need to peacefully co-exist. That gets much more difficult in terms of the radicalisation of Northern society because of what's happening of late. People are retreating to their own safe havens. There's less and less interaction. What the governments are saying is essentially, 'c'mon, let's for once and for all finish this'."

The 'clár' has a long list of worthy motions covering all the conventional political issues. But Sinn Féin is still perceived as more Armalite than Armani. No matter how well it fares electorally, it needs to stop its struggle and allow itself to be reeled in.