IRA ceasefire ‘tactical’, says Economist

THE IRA ceasefire is purely tactical, designed to achieve undemocratic ends, the Economist Intelligence Unit’s latest Country Report on Ireland asserts.

And the EIU fears that Sinn Féin in Government with Fianna Fáil might seek to prevent Garda investigations into any illegal IRA activities.

"It (Sinn Féin) could also attempt to use its influence over the executive branch of government to prevent any illegal IRA activities being subject to investigation by law enforcement agencies and sanction by the judiciary.

"If this were to happen, it would disrupt the even application of the rule of law and undermine the institutional integrity of the Irish state," the report by Dan O'Brien, senior europe editor/economist of The Economist Intelligence Unit, states.

Mr O'Brien said that a central question for the island of Ireland's political future is whether "the provisional movement Sinn Fein and the IRA" is evolving to become fully democratic or whether its use of democratic means is tactical and designed to achieve undemocratic ends.

"It is the view of the Economist Intelligence Unit that the evidence points towards the latter, more worrying scenario. Over 11 years after it declared a ceasefire and more than seven years after the signing of a political compromise to share power in Northern Ireland, the IRA's military capability remains fully intact, as documented by successive reports by the International Monitoring Committee (IMC)," the EIU contends.

Mr O'Brien argues that the IRA's political capability relies heavily on methods incompatible with democratic politics such as surveillance and intelligence-gathering on electoral rivals and the use of cash from organised criminal activities.

"In those parts of Northern Ireland in which it holds sway, it uses violence to enforce its will and physically threatens those who would inform the authorities of its illegal activities.

"While the IRA explicitly committed itself in July 2005 to ending all such activities and to using 'exclusively democratic means', it is difficult to envisage an organisation with such a deeply ingrained culture of violence and lawlessness being capable of changing as profoundly as suggested by a recent statement, even if some of the group's leading figures wish this to happen," the EIU states.

Mr O'Brien said that a threat to political stability in Ireland could arise after the next general election and that this would be more likely if Sinn Féin increased its Dáil seats as expected and no party coalesces with it.

"The result could be a weak, ineffectual and short-lived minority government. Alternatively, it is conceivable in the event of a hung parliament that Fianna Fáil could enter into an arrangement with Sinn Fein, despite its commitment not to do so," he adds.

"In this scenario, Sinn Féin could be expected to use its influence to advance its central goal, that of ending UK rule in Northern Ireland," he forecast.