Oscar predictions: Do Belfast and Killarney have much of a chance tonight?
Irish actors Jessie Buckley and Ciarán Hinds have been nominated for Academy Awards.
- Belfast
- CODA
- Don’t Look Up
- Drive My Car
- Dune
- King Richard
- Licorice Pizza
- Nightmare Alley
- The Power of the Dog
- West Side Story
This year the Academy returns to a ten-nominee format for Best Picture, a category which is decided by a preferential ballot - rather like the Irish electoral system - where voters can select in order of preference. This means a film that is broadly liked by the electorate can steal the win. Jane Campion’s The Power of the Dog has been picking up awards all season, but interestingly last week The Producers Guild of America - which also uses a preferential ballot - opted for the charming indie drama, CODA. Momentum matters, and the Oscar is now regarded as between those two films. I would add Kenneth Branagh’s love-letter to home city Belfast and Steven Spielberg’s underloved West Side Story into the mix. If the Academy is feeling adventurous, watch out for Japan’s highly regarded Drive My Car.
The Power of the Dog
Belfast
- Javier Bardem (Being the Ricardos)
- Benedict Cumberbatch (The Power of the Dog)
- Andrew Garfield (tick, tick…BOOM!)
- Will Smith (King Richard)
- Denzel Washington (The Tragedy of Macbeth)
This is regarded as one of the safer categories, with Will Smith picking up nods all year for his performance as colourful tennis dad Richard Williams in what is a feel-good sports movie about how Venus and Serena became tennis icons. He even won on Cumberbatch’s home ceremony of the BAFTAs. The main contender will be Cumberbatch if TPOTD sweeps on the night. My favourite of these five was Andrew Garfield’s endearing and demanding performance on Lin-Manuel Miranda’s Tick…tick…Boom!
Will Smith.
Andrew Garfield.
- Ciarán Hinds (Belfast)
- Troy Kotsur (CODA)
- Jesse Plemons (The Power of the Dog)
- J.K. Simmons (Being the Ricardos)
- Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Power of the Dog)
Kotsur is running away with this one. He’s been winning all awards season - and delighting us with his acceptance thanks in the process - courtesy of his beguiling performance in CODA. If anything, this film is gathering momentum. If not Kotsur, I would love to see Hinds get the nod for his role in Belfast, though Kodi Smit-McPhee is regarded as the main threat in this category.
Troy Kotsur.
Troy Kotsur.
- Jessica Chastain (The Eyes of Tammy Faye)
- Olivia Colman (The Lost Daughter)
- Penélope Cruz (Parallel Mothers)
- Nicole Kidman (Being the Ricardos)
- Kristen Stewart (Spencer)
Chastain, three times nominated, is the frontrunner, and picked up the influential Screen Actors Guild award for her role as the US televangelist. But I don’t feel this is a given despite her strong run so far. Watch out for Academy favourite Olivia Colman or Penélope Cruz, brilliant in Almodóvar’s fine Parallel Mothers. Cruz’s surprise nomination indicates she’s a popular candidate here.
Jessica Chastain
Penélope Cruz.
- Jessie Buckley (The Lost Daughter)
- Ariana Debose (West Side Story)
- Judi Dench (Belfast)
- Kirsten Dunst (The Power of the Dog)
- Aunjanue Ellis (King Richard)
Ariana Debose has been winning all of the awards for her luminous performance as Anita in West Side Story, and you can’t take your eyes off her when she’s onscreen. Dunst could benefit from a TPOTD awards-sweep on the night, but my money’s on Killarney’s Jessie Buckley, terrific as an overwhelmed young mother in Maggie Gyllenhaal’s The Lost Daughter. Either way, Buckley will be celebrating her first nomination following a remarkable run of roles.
Ariana Debose
Jessie Buckley
- Drive My Car (Japan)
- FLEE (Denmark)
- The Hand of God (Italy)
- Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom (Bhutan)
- The Worst Person in the World (Norway)
This is a highly competitive category with many of these nominees a clear favourite on another year. Drive My Car’s nomination in the Best Picture category has to give it an edge and it’s the current favourite among the Hollywood industry publications. But serious competition comes from critically acclaimed The Worst Person in the World, a winner for its lead actress at Cannes, and Denmark’s highly regarded FLEE, the story of a child refugee told through animation.
Drive My Car
Drive My Car
- CODA
- Drive My Car
- Dune
- The Lost Daughter
- The Power of the Dog
CODA, a moving and funny drama set in the deaf community has taken a late momentum run and is the current favourite among US pundits. The main challenger is Jane Campion’s intricate western but I’m batting for Maggie Glyyenhaal’s fine work on The Lost Daughter. The actress turned writer-director did a great job of bringing real women to life in this complex tale of motherhood.
CODA
The Lost Daughter
- Belfast
- Don’t Look Up
- King Richard
- Licorice Pizza
- The Worst Person in the World
Belfast’s funny, moving and true screenplay captures a sense of innocence and the power of community at a time of conflict and could well represent the Irish film’s best chance of an Oscar on the night. But first it will have to overcome Paul Thomas Anderson’s coming-of-age drama Licorice Pizza, currently regarded as a narrow favourite.
Belfast
Belfast
- Ascension
- Attica
- FLEE
- Summer of Soul
- Writing With Fire
FLEE is the main contender in a very strong field, but this looks very much like a certainty for Summer of Soul. Questlove’s joyful and richly detailed account of the 1969 Harlem Cultural Festival soars with each new stage performance and, given the work involved in bringing it to life, deserved to be nominated for Best Picture.
Summer of Soul
Summer of Soul
- The Academy Awards take place on Sunday night from about 1am Irish time. Live coverage on Sky Cinema, with highlights on RTÉ2 on Monday night
Director Guillermo del Toro (The Shape of Water) sets his latest in 1940s New York, where Stanton Carlisle (Bradley Cooper) aims to grift the city’s wealthy. On Disney+ and rental platforms including Apple TV.
A pair of scientists aim to warn the world of an approaching comet that could be disastrous for the planet, to the bemusement of top politicians. Adam McKay’s latest is on Netflix.
A young man born to a great destiny must face dangers on a distant planet to save his people in Denis Villeneuve’s (Arrival) latest. On rental platforms including Sky Store.
A young woman is tasked with driving a renowned actor and director to a prestigious festival in this critically acclaimed Japanese drama. On rental platforms including IFI@home.
Kenneth Branagh’s bittersweet tribute to his home city centres on a family driven by The Troubles to consider a new life. In cinemas and rental platforms.
Paul Thomas Anderson’s coming-of-age romance centres on a young couple in 1970s California. In cinemas.
Two brothers and ranchers descend on a town in 1920s Montana in Jane Campion’s tale of repression and control. On Netflix.
Steven Spielberg’s spirited take on the much-loved musical is both a fitting tribute and its own animal. In cinemas, on Disney+ and rental platforms.
A determined family aim for a better life in this sports movie about Venus and Serena Williams. On rental platforms including Apple TV.
A teenage girl is torn between her own dreams and the needs of her deaf family in this funny and beguiling indie. On Apple TV+.
