What are the chances of an Irish Oscar win on Sunday?

It’s a bumper year for the Irish at this year’s Oscars, with nine Irish-related nominations, but actual wins could be hard to come by.
What are the chances of an Irish Oscar win on Sunday?

1. Room (Ed Guiney)

  • Category: Best Picture
  • Rivals: The Big Short; Bridge of Spies; Mad Max: Fury Road; The Martian; The Revenant; Spotlight; and Brooklyn.
  • Chances: Ed Guiney is in illustrious company — Steven Spielberg, Brad Pitt and Ridley Scott are among the other contenders in a crowded field of eight for the top prize on the night with The Revenant tipped to pip Spotlight.

2. Brooklyn (Finola Dwyer and Amanda Posey)

  • Category: Best Picture
  • Rivals: The Big Short; Bridge of Spies; Mad Max: Fury Road; The Martian; The Revenant; Spotlight; and Room.
  • Chances: It will be an exciting night for the co-producer of Brooklyn Amanda Posey, as her husband Nick Hornby is also nominated in the best-adapted screenplay category, but it would be a surprise if herself and her co-producer Finola Dwyer wins.

3. Michael Fassbender (Steve Jobs)

  • Category: Actor in a Leading Role
  • Rivals: Bryan Cranston (Trumbo); Matt Damon (The Martian); Leonardo DiCaprio (The Revenant); and Eddie Redmayne (The Danish Girl)
  • Chances: The Kerryman is unlikely to outdo this year’s Bafta winner Leonardo DiCaprio who is a runaway favourite with the bookies to win after falling short on five previous occasions at the Oscars.

4. Brie Larson (Room)

  • Category: Actress in a Leading Role
  • Rivals: Cate Blanchett (Carol); Jennifer Lawrence (Joy); Charlotte Rampling (45 Years); and Saoirse Ronan (Brooklyn).
  • Chances: The Californian actress Brie Larson is the hot favourite to win, having already bagged several other gongs during awards season for her depiction of motherhood under strain.

5. Saoirse Ronan (Brooklyn)

  • Category: Actress in a Leading Role
  • Rivals: Cate Blanchett (Carol); Jennifer Lawrence (Joy); Charlotte Rampling (45 Years); and Brie Larson (Room)
  • Chances: Carlow’s finest will probably come up short again in her second Oscar nomination, after her breakout role in Atonement in 2007.

6. Lenny Abrahamson (Room)

  • Category: Director
  • Rivals: Adam McKay (The Big Short); George Miller (Mad Max: Fury Road); Alejandro G Iñárritu (The Revenant); Tom McCarthy (Spotlight)
  • Chances: Lenny Abrahamson, who keeps making interesting movies, is the long-shot in the directing category for his fifth film. The award will probably go to the Mexican Alejandro Gonzalo Iñárritu, who, also won last year’s Best Director award for Birdman.

7. Benjamin Cleary and Serena Armitage (Stutterer)

  • Category: Short Film (Live Action)
  • Rivals: Ave Maria (Eric Dupont and Basil Khalil); Day One (Henry Hughes); Everything Will Be Okay (Patrick Vollrath); Shok (Jamie Donoughue)
  • Chances: Benjamin Cleary is in with a good shout to win for his film about a lonely typographer trying to find love. Its main threat will come from the Israeli short Ave Marie.

8. Emma Donoghue (Room)

  • Category: Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
  • Rivals: Adam McKay and Charles Randolph (Michael Lewis’s The Big Short); Phyllis Nagy (for adapting Patricia Highsmith’s The Price of Salt for the movie Carol); Drew Goddard (Andy Weir’s The Martian); and Nick Hornby (Colm Tóibín’s Brooklyn)
  • Chances: Emma Donoghue’s novel Room was shortlisted for the Man Booker Prize but failed to win. She’ll likely fall short again for her adapted screenplay, as Adam McKay and Charles Randolph are runaway favourites to win for their adaptation of another hit, Michael Lewis’s non-fiction book.

9. Nick Hornby (Brooklyn)

  • Category: Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
  • Rivals: Adam McKay and Charles Randolph (Michael Lewis’s The Big Short); Phyllis Nagy (for adapting Patricia Highsmith’s The Price of Salt for the movie Carol); Drew Goddard (Andy Weir’s The Martian); and Emma Donoghue (her novel, Room)
  • Chances: It would be a surprise if Nick Hornby, who has had several of his own books adapted for film, were to win for his work on Colm Tóibín’s poignant masterpiece about emigration.

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