You do not need a prescription for wine

I’M scratching my head again. The particular cause of my puzzlement this time is a report that’s been all over the media this week.

According to reports carried by some of the big British papers as well as the international news agencies, drinking a glass of wine a day or a pint of beer can cut the chance of developing dementia.

Scientists in Germany, we’re told, spent three years studying 3,200 people over the age of 75, who had no signs of dementia when they signed up for the study. Of those, 217 went on to develop dementia. The researchers found that those who drank between two and three units a day (roughly equivalent to a glass of wine or pint of beer) were 29% less likely to have started developing dementia by the end of the three-year period than those who were teetotal.

The academics concluded that “light-to-moderate” alcohol consumption could have a “protective effect” against dementia.

Sorry? Am I missing something here? Here’s a peer-reviewed scientific study which appears to be ignoring the elephant in the room: They have proven that the two key matters being measured — not developing dementia in one corner and a glass of alcohol in the other — did coincide in the group study. But that certainly does not prove there’s a cause-and-effect link. That’s what had me wondering if I’d missed something. Until with relief I read on to discover the trap door built into the article: “Some studies have shown a positive effect of wine only, which may be due either to the level of ethanol [alcohol], the complex mixture that comprises wine or to healthier life-style ascribed to wine drinkers.”

Finally. A caveat that puts the study in its proper context. But it comes only after many, many paragraphs of other information seemingly supporting the headline thought that drink is good for you.

The problem with eliding the gap between coincidence and causality was well summed up in another context by one writer: “Are antioxidants the key to that link? Possibly. But people who choose to eat fruit and vegetables are getting a lot of good stuff into them, and they’re also like me: they’re a bit posh, they get plenty of exercise, they work, they have strong social supports, and more.”

The writer is Ben Goldacre. A London-based doctor, he began blogging because he despaired of quasi-scientific nonsense that has been used since time immemorial to scare people, or gull them into buying products or both. His personal crusade has blossomed into newspaper, radio and television work and a book “Bad Science” which sold over 250,000 copies, and reached first place in the paperback non-fiction bestseller list.

It may seem odd given the seriousness of the subject, but arguably the best introduction to Goldacre’s mission is through a spot he did on a comedy show. The Now Show is a long-running satirical news comedy on BBC Radio 4. In August 2009, he joined the cast for a brief stand-up distillation of health reporting.

This blackly comic tour de force is a hearty advertisement for the joys of sceptical thinking; a useful tool for decoding some of the problems about the way health is reported in the media. In less than six minutes, he demolishes the myth that “scientists” keep changing their minds regarding the lifestyle choices they suggest for a healthy lifestyle. They don’t. Rather, their published work is often cherry-picked, misreported and inflated into an exciting read about something which has been determined to either kill you or cure you. It’s worth a listen, and happily quite a few fans have put the recording (audio only of course) up online: Go to YouTube and search for the phrase “Ben Goldacre now show”.

In it, he cites a shocking example of media nonsense with relevance here. One London newspaper responded to the UK government’s cervical cancer vaccination scheme with a stirring campaign: The jab was putting girls’ and women’s lives at risk and should be resisted at all costs…

And yet, Goldacre revealed, the Irish edition of the same paper took the opposite side, campaigning in favour of the same vaccination. It had nothing to do with caring for your health and everything to do with cynically drumming up readers' anxiety.

* I’m in favour of wine and I think it’s good for me. But I don’t need any prescription to tuck into it, and certainly not one issued by a newspaper or a blog. If I want antioxidants I’ll have a tomato. Now pass the corkscrew and let’s look at some fun wines at the Wine Buff. Sláinte!

* www.thewinebuff.com.