Caitríona Redmond: Food prices are at a tipping point — brace for a hard winter
Overall, according to the HICP, prices in Ireland were about 1.8% higher in August 2025 than a year earlier. This means that purchases that cost €100 last August would cost about €101.80 now.
There are two ways in which the rate of inflation in Ireland can be measured and both of which are reported upon by the CSO.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is published roughly at the beginning of the second week of the month, 12 months of the year. The index is calculated based on sample purchases of a range of goods and services, and yes, this includes food.
The goods and services are divided out into sections such as health, transport, education, food, and non-alcoholic beverages etc. This enables the CSO to calculate which areas are increasing in price and which areas are decreasing, making it easier for consumers to figure out where their budget pinch points maybe.
The harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) is compiled by a European agency called Eurostat. It’s a price index designed so all EU — and Eurostat — countries can measure inflation in the same way.
This index is published in the middle of every month, but every now and again, the CSO decides to give us an advanced warning of a potentially significant statistic. This is what happened last Monday.
Overall, according to the HICP, prices in Ireland were about 1.8% higher in August 2025 than a year earlier. This means that purchases that cost €100 last August would cost about €101.80 now.
This figure of 1.8% annual inflation pales in comparison to the increase in the cost of food over the past year. Last month, the HICP reflected an increase in the cost of food of 0.4% in August versus July, and 5% versus a year ago. Meaning that a basket of food that costs you €100 last August, would now cost €105.
It’s this increase in the cost of food that is causing an awful lot of alarm for many consumers. It’s almost a given that when the CSO releases their CPI details later this week, the high cost of food will also be reflected in their report.
The CPI is a figure that most Irish households are familiar with because it is meant to reflect our everyday experience of shopping, paying bills, and covering our transport costs (fuel etc). When we see that food, housing, or healthcare have risen in the index, it confirms what we have already been feeling in our wallets.
Remember, small monthly increases may not look so bad on paper, but over time the cumulative effect can be significant, especially when living on less.
An additional €5 per week for a grocery shop may be the difference between managing and struggling, depending on your budget — €5 per week extra is €260 per year; nearly as much as a month’s child benefit for two children.
It’s not all bad news, because there have been reductions in the cost of transport and the cost of energy in Ireland.
In particular, the cost of transport has reduced significantly, with some changes in the price of tickets and the introduction of free transport for children of certain ages. You can find out more information on that below.
Combine the increase in the cost of food with reports of ‘shrinkflation’ and we consumers are very concerned about how far our Euro will stretch this winter and beyond.
It’s difficult to measure the impact of inflation on the Irish consumer because the CSO tracks weights and measures, not package sizes. For good reason, because if they were tracking package sizes, they would have their work cut out for them.
Many consumers already buy own brand or private label items in their weekly shop and faced with such increases in the cost of food, they are also beginning to cut back on what they purchase. Research surveys conducted by retail consultants such as Kantar and Checkout Magazine suggest that consumers are waiting for special offers to purchase their favourite brands.
As a nation, we now buy more chicken and less red meat, due in no small part to an increase in cost of beef. The retail food business is deeply connected with supply and demand. When demand for a particular product decrease is due to excessive cost, there is a knock-on effect on farmers and producers.
The increased demand for cheaper soft fruits and vegetables 365 days a year has driven retailers to importing produce from mainland Europe and beyond, for example. On the island of Ireland, the number of farmers producing fruits and vegetables for supermarkets is in double figures. We are reaching a tipping point, where Irish consumers may not be able to afford to support Irish producers, who deserve a fair price.
While falling transport and energy costs will offer us some relief, the continuing rise in food prices means inflation is a real concern at our kitchen tables.
How the Government and retailers respond to this price crisis will determine whether Irish consumers, and producers, can weather the squeeze and potentially tougher times ahead.
For now, households are bracing for a winter where stretching the weekly grocery shop may prove harder than ever.
It’ll be interesting to see what Budget 2026 will bring to help hard-pressed families.
We get very little for free nowadays but I’ve good news for a change. Did you know that all children aged eight and under are now eligible for free public transport?
There’s a hitch however, as it’s not an automatic free ticket on boarding a bus, train, or tram; parents need to apply for a Child 5-8 Leap Card for children between those ages. Without that magic card, they won’t benefit from free transport. Parents should visit about.leapcard.ie and apply online by presenting a proof of their own ID and the date of birth of their child.
Children aged 4 years and under can still board public transport for free.
