With a ‘Green’ light for NAMA, the party of education is at one

“OBVIOUSLY when we entered Government we were wanted – now we’re needed.”

That was the assessment of Green Party leader John Gormley on the deal struck with Fianna Fáil after his supporters emphatically approved of the policy to remain in power.

It represents a general consensus the Greens used the public mood and Dáil maths to hold Fianna Fáil’s head over a barrel and squeeze out a better Programme for Government.

But it represents shallow logic.

Fianna Fáil only need the Greens for as long as it wants to keep this Government alive.

The Greens need Fianna Fáil to survive.

Fianna Fáil has 65,000 members, 3,000 branches and has a slew of experienced local politicians to select as candidates in every constituency.

The party will be kicked out in the next election, most likely it will be in opposition afterwards and it will have to do a lot of soul searching before it recovers.

But it can still expect one in every five voters to support it even on a very bad day.

By contrast the Green Party has 2,200 affiliated members, it is far more ideologically diverse, was destroyed in the local elections and could not even find a candidate to run in two out of four European constituencies.

On Saturday, 523 members voted for the programme but victories for the parliamentary party in the conference hall of the RDS will be worth nothing when deciding the members of the 31st Dáil.

In Dublin South, home of popular minister Eamon Ryan, in a fertile Green plot, it polled 3.55% in the recent by-election.

Therefore, it was no surprise party members swung emphatically behind the leadership endorsing the new Programme for Government and more surprisingly opting 2:1 to support NAMA.

This was despite constant grumbling protests about the bank rescue plan, the holding of a complicated referendum in Athlone and the fact the amended details of the NAMA Bill with the much-hyped Green Party concessions have not even been published.

Fianna Fáil will have its pride wounded in the next election but the Green Party could be dead.

So the party had to find something to justify its time in office before going back to the electorate.

As trends on the vote emerged Green Party members leaving the RDS arena were pragmatic. Neither the programme or NAMA represented all their dreams wrapped up in one but it was the best a party with six TDs could expect.

And it gives them a document they can bring around on the canvass to try rekindle cooled friendships.

Mr Gormley’s public persona suggested something far more grand. He repeatedly claimed the new Programme was “transformational” when critics called it aspirational.

Mr Ryan, when asked to outline one specific promise, pointed to the year-long target on electoral reform.

However this actually only seeks the publication of a report within one year.

But in terms of strategy the party’s logic is clear.

Yesterday Mr Gormley branded the Greens as “the party of education”, it is likely to be a phrase uttered a lot in the next two years.

And the concessions it fought for most focused on education, which will be a source of some pride for Dublin Mid-west TD Paul Gogarty.

He is often mocked by Opposition members for eccentric behaviour. And it was he who resigned as the party’s education spokesman during its spring conference demanding cuts in the sector rolled back.

But again Mr Gormley conceded it will be up to the universities to implement fees by stealth with increased annual registration charges.

The negotiation process had its perks. In the short term the Green Party has enjoyed unrivalled publicity for the past month and at a local level kept representatives in the limelight.

It also has given the leaders a new mandate and eliminates the constant commentary on problems within the party.

Fianna Fáil will benefit as well. With the opposition branding it as the party for propagating cronyism among bankers and developers its asset management agency has been given the “Green” light by the political body most sceptical of corrupt practices.

Finance Minister Brian Lenihan has also received some firm grounding in his budget preparations as what could arguably have been the most unstable section of the Government.

The Green Party may not have got commitments but it has drawn up a manifesto in its battle for survival.