‘Father of the Dáil’ in pole position to assume mantle of Taoiseach
A seemingly interminable election campaign, which feels like it has been running since the night of the bank guarantee on September 29, 2008, will have finally come to an end. Mind you, the count process mightn’t be a short, sharp one either, if you include the second phase of counting seats in the composition of a government.
Either way, and regardless of the outcome, come Monday, February 28, there will be a strong sense of a people having drawn a line in their national sands, and the end of a period in our history that is best consigned to just that, our history.
Our future, and where we go from here, will then become our focus and the identity of those who will lead us. There’s no doubt now that the onerous task will fall on the shoulders of Enda Kenny. It’s doubtful if even he could have envisaged being in this position when he assumed the leadership of a devastated Fine Gael party from Michael Noonan in the aftermath of a disastrous general election in 2002, when they were reduced to a mere 31 seats. That a completely rejuvenated and reinvigorated Fine Gael, less than a decade later, stands on the cusp of single-party government is indeed a remarkable tribute to the man who now fulfils the role of ‘Father of the Dáil’, the longest-serving TD currently serving.
It’s by no means certain that their ultimate goal will be achieved by Fine Gael, but it’s almost within their grasp, and they haven’t been this close for a long, long time.
On January 27 last, in my role as chairman of Edelman PR, I had the pleasure of hosting, for the fourth time, the launch of our annual Worldwide Trust Barometer. Enda was our guest of honour, as he had been on two of the previous three occasions. It was his first public outing for a while, and attracted a lot of media attention; he duly obliged with quite a strong speech. In chatting privately with him beforehand, however, I suggested to him and his adviser that an overall majority was a real possibility. I was struck by the pair’s quiet confidence and came away from the encounter with a strong sense that their demeanour was borne from thorough research and an advanced state of organisation.
I’ve reflected on that conversation several times over the course of the campaign, and each time I have consolidated my original impression. We’ve seen a highly organised campaign from Fine Gael, in which their leader, or indeed any of his colleagues, has hardly put a foot wrong, maintaining his starting position of short-priced favourite, protecting his comfortable lead throughout without over-extending and, in doing so, forcing his competitors to extend themselves in an effort to catch up.
The sniping from Labour over the past week was their reaction to the alarming realisation that their foregone conclusion of the past 18 months that they would be in government was now at severe risk, and something had to be done to haul back Fine Gael. There was little chance of Fianna Fáil doing it, as their strategy was obviously one of consolidation where possible of their new-found position and arresting their disastrous slump, not leaving themselves open to yet further public opprobrium at this crucial stage.
WE now have a situation, with seven days left, of a real possibility for single-party Fine Gael government, more than likely with the support of a group of like-minded ‘Independents’, and the ‘Gilmore for Taoiseach’ posters appear to have been somewhat profligate, to say the least. If Labour are to reassert their position as likely coalition partners they must do so before this weekend is out — the game is over, in terms of swinging a significant block of public opinion, come Tuesday. Either way, Labour were wrong-footed from the start of the campaign, and have been scrambling ever since.
Fine Gael have been on an election footing since Autumn, and their strategy was one of ‘KISS’ — ‘Keep It Simple, Stupid’. Its cornerstone, their ‘Five Point Plan’, has been enthusiastically grasped by every member of their organisation and they were comfortable in dealing with any queries which arose around it. The opening press conference of their campaign featured not only Kenny, but Phil Hogan, Michael Noonan, James Reilly, Leo Varadkar, and Richard Bruton; strength, talent and experience all round. They have remained at the forefront throughout too — in contrast, Eamonn Gilmore appears to have been on a long-haul solo flight. Clearly he’s at his best in the day-to-day arena of the Dáil chamber, rather than on the hustings, and the best he and his colleagues can hope for now is a role in government somewhat diluted from that aspired to at the height of the ‘Gilmore gale’.
I’ve never been sold on the idea that we have a highly sophisticated electorate, as some of our more seductively campaigning politicians would have us believe. We do not vote for coalition governments —they arise as an accident of mathematics, consequent upon the number of votes cast for a selection of individuals and parties. ‘Single party government — no thanks !’, was a slogan from a recent general election; interesting that its proponents are now espousing precisely the opposite.
Regardless of the election’s outcome, and of the composition of the next government, our TDs in our next Dáil will be confronted by a unique set of challenges. They will all require our constructive support as they set about their task; it is not a time for blind loyalties, nor for blind opposition either.
CONNECT WITH US TODAY
Be the first to know the latest news and updates
