Stephen Cadogan: A slimmer appetite but better food – the challenge for agri-food
People using the drugs eat less and are more selective.
As we move into 2026, we can expect weight-management drugs to have an increasing impact on the global food industry.
According to Julia Buech, a senior consumer foods analyst with Rabobank, 6-8% of people in the UK have tried weight-loss drugs, originally developed for the treatment of diabetes, but now widely adopted for weight-management.
That means use of the treatments is already about as big a factor in the British food market as vegetarianism. That may have direct consequences for Ireland's food industry, more dependent on the UK than any other export destination.
There will be winners and losers in the food industry, said Ms Buech. People who use the drugs eat less and are more selective. That is expected to speed up existing trends towards higher protein intake and foods recommended for gut health. Users tend to eat less, but to eat better.
To counter muscle loss, users of the treatments will likely go for higher protein in their diets. That could boost consumption of dairy foods, protein bars, and meat snacks, at the expense of more fatty or sugary foods.
Fresh produce may also be a winner.
Consumption of alcohol may fall, as the drugs also affect the desire for or tolerance of alcohol.
Globally, the USA is the biggest user, with 12-14% of American adults estimated to have tried the drugs. Europe is catching up, especially in the UK.
Use of the treatments is likely to jump this year. According to Ms Buech, there are a number of reasons to expect weight-loss drugs to gain increasing momentum, a trend which may bring changes throughout the food industry, but perhaps especially for sales of sugar, meat, and fresh produce.
With some drug patents expiring in 2026, the way is open for a new wave of cheaper versions, reducing users' expenditure from the current hundreds of dollars a month.
They will also become more affordable due to public health programmes including them. In the USA, the Medicare and Medicaid government health insurance programmes are expected to start covering the cost of prescribed weight-loss drugs this year.
Europe is moving in the same direction. Currently, in most countries, people have to pay privately for their weight-loss injections (typically £100 to £250 a month in the UK). But some in England and Wales get them free from hospital obesity clinics. People in Scotland have even greater access to free weight-loss drugs.
Use of the drugs will also increase due to oral formats replacing injections, expected this year in the USA. Progress is also expected in reducing side-effects such as nausea.
The appetite-suppressing effects and associated lifestyle changes present both risks and opportunities for food companies and brands, said John Tobin of the food board.
He said the medications were amplifying existing consumer trends such as demand for protein-rich, gut-friendly, and nutrient-dense foods, rather than creating entirely new trends.
Eight in 10 users of the drugs reported altered taste perceptions, with many previously enjoyed foods now rejected. This is driving a move away from processed snacks and towards higher-quality, natural options.
Households in higher-income brackets with a GLP-1a user have seen grocery spend decline as much as 8%, with the biggest savings in the cost of processed and savoury snacks.
Instead, users seek foods that support muscle maintenance, digestive health, and hydration, favouring products that deliver essential nutrients in smaller portions.
The global market for GLP-1a weight-management drugs is projected to reach $100bn by 2030.
