‘Serious damage’ to Irish agri-food sector from hard Brexit
A hard Brexit could result in a default to World Trade Organisation (WTO) rules with agri-food businesses losing market access as agriculture and food face particularly high tariffs under those rules.
A hard Brexit will cause serious damage to Ireland’s dairy and beef sectors, new research from Trinity Business School has indicated.
And, according to the research from Frank Barry, Professor of International Business & Economic Development at the Trinity Business School, the Irish beef and dairy sectors face “significant challenges in the case of a hard Brexit”.
“We have a very strong record of attracting multinational companies to Ireland,” he added.
“This record of achievement can be leveraged to offset some of the damage to Ireland that Brexit will undoubtedly entail”.
Meanwhile, a default to World Trade Organisation (WTO) rules looks increasingly likely with agri-food businesses losing market access as agriculture and food face particularly high tariffs under those rules.
“Irish agri-food businesses would lose access to the UK market, and so would need to find new markets to sell to,” continued Mr Berry.
“The UK also exports substantial quantities of beef and dairy products to the EU, however, the increased barriers the UK would face would leave a vacuum that would afford some opportunities for Irish exporters.” Revealed comparative advantage (RCA) analysis suggests that while Irish beef might be reasonably well positioned to replace British exports, this is not the case for dairy, where brand names are extremely significant.
A possibility suggested by the analysis is that Ireland’s industrial development agencies redouble their efforts to attract the firms that produce these brands to come to Ireland.
The policy implication applies much more broadly than just to the dairy sector.
“Brands are extremely important in certain other sectors in which UK-based firms will also suffer diminished access to the EU market if no UK-EU trade agreement is reached over the coming weeks,” the research concluded.
The UK left the EU on January 31 last with a withdrawal agreement in place, the purpose of which was to create a process to allow it leave as smoothly as possible by January 1, 2021.
Talks are ongoing to negotiate a deal before the January 1, deadline.
