New minister may quickly face stiff Brexit test

Without a Brexit breakthrough, there is a fast-growing risk that negotiations will collapse by the end of the month

New Agriculture Minister Charlie McConalogue receives his Seal of Office from President Michael D. Higgins.

Ireland’s new agriculture minister, Charlie McConalogue, takes office just four days ahead of make-or-break talks on Brexit in London.

Preparations for a no-deal Brexit could become the new incumbent’s top priority, unless there is progress in Round 8 of the UK-EU negotiations in London next Monday, September 7.

The seventh round of talks between the negotiating teams ended on August 20 with the EU’s chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, accusing the UK of “wasting time” and warning that an agreement this year was “unlikely”.

Without a breakthrough, there is a fast-growing risk that negotiations will collapse by the end of the month.

The result of that would be the Brexit transition period ending on December 31 with the UK reverting to trading on World Trade Organization terms.

Fears of this outcome increased when Germany, which holds the rotating presidency of the EU council, and is seen as a potential dealmaker on the UK-EU future relationship, took Brexit off the agenda for yesterday’s EU ambassadors’ summit meeting.

“Since there hasn’t been any tangible progress in EU-UK negotiations, the Brexit item was taken off the agenda,” an EU diplomat said.

Meanwhile, a UK document leaked to the press last Sunday, warning of public disorder, shortages, and price hikes, in the event of a no-deal Brexit, was perceived in Brussels as a sign of the UK government’s seriousness about leaving the EU single market and customs union without a trade agreement.

For the new agriculture minister, the main fallout from a no-deal Brexit would be loss of free trade access for beef exports to the UK, the world’s fifth or sixth biggest beef importer.

Brexit researchers have calculated that Ireland would experience the strongest Brexit impact, of all the EU27 countries, in value-added in agriculture, with a 16.3% reduction, followed by the Netherlands (a reduction of 2.7%), and France (0.3%).

‘Value added’ is the standard method of measuring the contribution of a sector to gross domestic product and, therefore, its contribution to economic activity.

Meanwhile, farmer organisations welcomed the appointment of Minister McConalogue.

But ICMSA President , Pat McCormack warned he will have no honeymoon period. He said Brexit, CAP, Mercosur and Climate Change are the urgent areas.

IFA President Tim Cullinan congratulated the new Minister and said IFA expects him to to get to grips with his portfolio quickly.

In his statement yesterday, Mr Cullinan said, “Michel Barnier’s assessment today to the IIEA was very bleak and the prospect of a no-deal Brexit is a real one. Farmers are in the frontline in terms of a damaging outcome and the Minister has to carry this message at Government and EU level. ” He said the CAP Budget and the new Climate Bill are also urgent and critical issues.