How Article 50 filibuster could plunge us into no-deal smugglers’ paradise
The board members of Lakeland Dairies and the other southern co-ops that draw milk across the border from Northern Ireland for processing will hope against hope that Theresa May gets her Brexit deal across the line.
If this turns out to be a false dawn, the spectre of a No-Deal Brexit starts to become a more than distinct possibility.
In such circumstances, milk travelling from farms in the north to processing centres across the border could be exposed to a tariff, possibly amounting to 40% of the product’s market value.
We know this since the No-Deal tariffs were announced in London last week, and with the expectation that the Irish government will simply say that EU tariff rules will operate, with regard to food imports from any part of the UK, in the event of a No-Deal becoming reality.
The volumes of milk affected in this scenario are immense. Lakeland tankers alone take up to one billion litres of milk per year from farms in Northern Ireland.
What would happen to this trade in a No-Deal scenario?
Moreover, what impact would the imposition of such tariffs have on the farmers producing the milk in the first place? In truth, it’s a prospect that cannot be countenanced by the farmers and the processors involved.
Milk certification procedures may also be impacted by a No-Deal Brexit. Currently, there is full co-operation between the Department of Agriculture, Environment and Rural Affairs (DAERA) in Northern Ireland, and the Department of Agriculture, Food and the Marine in Dublin on this matter. However, if these working procedures broke down post-Brexit, it could prevent processers in the Republic of Ireland from handling milk sourced north of the border.
Milk from Northern Ireland is extremely important for southern dairies, to keep their processing plants operating at optimal capacity all-year-round. It includes about one-quarter of the drinking milk consumed in the south.
A No-Deal Brexit would also put tremendous pressure on the north’s sheep sector. Lamb groups in Northern Ireland export half a million head to southern processers on an annual basis.
This trade would also be exposed to swingeing tariffs in a No-Deal context.
And this is only the tip of the iceberg, where the agri-food trade involving Northern Ireland, the rest of the UK, and the Republic of Ireland is concerned, if a No-Deal Brexit becomes reality.
But more of this anon.
Even though the British Prime Minister has been charged by Westminster MPs with the job of securing an extension to the Article 50-based Brexit deadline, this does not change the legislation that is currently on the statute books.
So, in reality, two ways remain, to avoid a ‘crash-out’ Brexit before March 29.
One is for Theresa May to secure her much-discussed meaningful vote.
The other is to have the Article 50 legislation amended in Westminster. The second of these options is fraught with difficulty, because Mrs May does not have a natural majority in the House of Commons. She would be relying on Labour MPs to get the legislative change required. But even this could become an academic exercise if ‘Uber Brexiteers’ in the Conservative Party, and the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) contingent at Westminster, decided to filibuster implementation of the Article 50 amendment beyond March 29. In these circumstances, a No-Deal scenario would become the default position on that date.
The DUP has played a critical role in bringing us to the current impasse. The party’s deputy leader, Nigel Dodds, MP, is continually telling us Mrs May’s deal could weaken the union between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK, if the backstop contained in it is not altered. Central to all of this is the need to retain a frictionless border on the island of Ireland, as confirmed by the Good Friday agreement.
Significantly, the business and farming communities in Northern Ireland think the May deal is the best thing since sliced toast, given that it provides them with tariff-free access to both EU and British markets, irrespective of what direction subsequent trade negotiations between London and Brussels take.
There is also a general view abroad in the North, that the Good Friday agreement copper fastens the constitutional position of Northern Ireland within the UK, unless the result of a border poll confirms otherwise.
For the record, the DUP would regard itself as the party of business and farming in Northern Ireland. Not surprisingly, its 10-strong cohort of MPs at Westminster are now under tremendous pressure from many of their constituents to get a Brexit deal, quickly. So it will be interesting to see how they play their cards over the coming days.
Brexiteers (and smugglers) won’t give up on no-deal outcome
Ulster Unionist Party leader Robin Swann characterised the no deal tariff arrangements announced in London last week as a “smugglers’ paradise”.
Whereas Brexiteers among the Democratic Unionist Party MPs at Westminster said next to nothing about the no-deal tariff arrangements — which clearly and fundamentally set Northern Ireland apart as a separate trading entity from the rest of the UK — Mr Swann warned of the dangers it poses for Northern Ireland.
He commented: “By slapping steep tariffs on many agricultural products such as meat and dairy products between the UK and the Republic of Ireland, but leaving tariff-free access between Ireland and Northern Ireland, it’s blatantly obvious what will happen.
“In theory, the new tariff regime could mean better prices for producers in the north, as EU imports to Great Britain will become more expensive. But, in reality, I suspect Northern Ireland will very quickly become a gateway into the UK from the EU for much of their produce.
“Why would any producer from the Republic of Ireland, apart from the biggest and most high-profile companies, voluntarily ship their produce from Dublin to England, and pay the associated tariff costs, when they could just as easily put it on the back of a lorry and ship it from Belfast tariff-free?
“It’s a preposterous situation, and one which probably isn’t even legal under World Trade Organisation terms.
“What makes it worse is the UK government took the decision in the blind and almost certainly misguided hope that the EU and Ireland would return the favour.
“That is almost certainly not going to happen and, as a result, the EU will impose the same tariffs on Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK as it does on any other non-EU member state.”
It’s hard not to disagree with the Ulster Unionist leader’s logic.
Neither should we lose sight of the fact that the arch Brexiteers in the British Conservative party could still have their way, and secure their vision of a pure Brexit, which means the UK leaving the EU without a deal, if they play their cards right over the coming days.
As Jacob Rees-Mogg, the leader of the ultra-right-wing ERG group, keeps pointing out, the Brexit debate is all about the legislation concerned, and is very little to do with motions that can or cannot be passed in the House of Commons.
Article 50 was brought into law by the UK government two years ago.
The Brexit date of March 29 2019 was enshrined in legislation back then. Rees-Mogg knows he can play merry hell with any attempts that Theresa May will make in seeking an extension to Article 50, if he has the “cojones” to do so.
The next few days will be more than interesting.
Meanwhile, the farming and food industries across all parts of the UK and Ireland continue to highlight the disastrous consequences of a no-deal Brexit.
The Republic of Ireland would find itself on the horns of a real dilemma, should this come to pass. Free trade with Northern Ireland on one hand, but on the other hand, swingeing tariffs imposed in the case of food exports sent directly to the rest of the UK.
It’s a set of circumstances welcomed only by anyone involved in smuggling operations along the Irish border.
