Winter barley to set new record
The area of winter cereals is estimated to have risen slightly this year, to 138,000 hectares, boosted by very favourable autumn conditions for drilling crops. The winter barley cropping choice upward trend has continued, to an estimated 75,000 hectares.
This is due to a combination of factors, which include the impending 2/3 crop rule, and winter barley’s reliable performance relative to alternative crops in recent years.(New crop diversification rules require a farmer with 10-30ha of arable land to grow at least two crops; a farmer with over 30ha must grow at least three crops)
The area of winter wheat, despite an excellent year for the crop in 2014, has fallen significantly, especially in southern counties.
The area of oilseed rape has also fallen, due to its relatively poor performance over the past three years.
Meanwhile, there have been relatively good conditions since winter crops were drilled, except for some later drilled wheat crops that suffered from wet November weather.
It has been an excellent autumn for plant establishment, with very high plant counts in most crops. Early in December, winter barley crops were quite advanced (growth stage 23-24), winter wheat was generally at growth stages 13 to 21.
Winter oilseed rape crops had established very well, with many having achieved GAI (Green Area Index) over 1.5, which may present opportunities for significant spring nitrogen fertiliser savings. Some rape crops had autumn GAIs greater 3.0.
Opportunities for weed and aphid control have been reasonably sufficient.
As always, Teagasc advise growers to complete a financial review of their cropping programme before committing to land rental decisions in 2015. A free excel calculator is available at www.teagasc.ie/crops/crops_margins to help growers estimate crop budgets.
Grain price prospects
Strategie Grains (a respected grain market consultant) notes that the 2014/15 production year was a record one for EU grain maize, but that there were some concerns around quality.
They also estimate that the EU will increase its wheat exports this year, while the barley market is still working through its production.
Compared to last year, the overall outlook is not deemed to be as ‘heavy’, but the potential for high production and consequentially for high carry-over stocks, is there.
Winter cereal sowing conditions were good in most EU countries. The overall wheat area should remain close to the record level established in 2014/15, whereas the winter barley acreage is expected to fall by 1%.
Strategie Grains estimate that the grain maize acreage will decrease by 2% compared with 2014/15, while oilseed rape drillings are also set to fall by 1%.
The USDA, Strategie Grains and the IGC all estimate that world wheat stocks are trending higher at the end of the 2014/2015 crop year than the previous two years.
For world barley, the outlook in 2014/15 is more finely balanced with a stocks-to-use ratio lower than in 2013/14.
In maize, there is agreement that carry-over stocks for the 2014/2015 year have increased as a result of increased production worldwide.
