Survey shows that farming industry is at a crossroads

The 2014 Irish Examiner ICMSA farming survey depicts an industry at the crossroads — shortly before the end of EU milk quotas and the CAP reform start to transform it, and before the signs of recovery in the national economy and consumer confidence begin to take effect.

Reading between the lines of the results, we can envisage how farming may be affected by the major changes which are afoot, and by the other fundamental changes within the industry.

One fundamental change thrown up by the survey is a significant drop in farmer optimism, down from 79% to 69%. Even with a brave new world beckoning for dairy farmers, that’s a 12% slump in overall farmer confidence.

In fact, reduced optimism among farmers is probably understated in this survey. For the survey to be statistically accurate (to within 3.5%), respondents had to be selected at random at the agricultural events where the survey took place.

Random selection — and inclusion of the IHFA National Open Day in the events covered — resulted in no fewer than 36% of people in the survey having involvement in dairy farming. But only about one Irish farmer in seven (14%) is a dairy farmer. And despite dairy farming being “over-represented” at least 100%, a slump in overall farmer confidence is one of the overall survey results.

Compared to last year’s survey, dairy farmers have gone from 83% optimistic to 86% optimistic.

In turn, there is under-representation of beef farmers (who have gone from 79% to 61% optimistic) and tillage farmers (who have gone from 84% to 68% optimistic).

That has to be taken into account when noting that the survey shows the vast majority of farmers remain optimistic, but there with a significant reduction in optimism compared to last year’s survey.

Just 61% of farmers involved in beef production are optimistic, and only 53% of them about the future of their own sector. The perceived prospects in tillage have also fallen back.

Only a third of beef farmers indicate that they feel their farming future is secure; almost half are pessimistic.

So why do only 6% of non-dairy farmers in the survey believe they will be enticed into the dairy sector after the end of milk quotas in April?

Is it because of the eternal optimism of beef farmers that profitability in their sector will recover? For that to happen, they believe live cattle exports will have to increase, this survey states.

It also reveals that about half of all farmers have some form of off-farm income. Maybe they are depending on economic recovery to generate more off-farm work for them, rather than switch to dairy farming?

Either way, their land could end up raising dairy cattle.

The survey reveals that 39-45% of dairy farmers intend to acquire land by buying it or renting it. Perhaps more than any other figure in this survey, that points to the way ahead in agriculture.