Changes in temperature and rainfall patterns will ‘challenge farmers’
Agri-food leaders attending Teagasc’s Future Weather conference in Dublin yesterday were told to prepare for greater climactic volatility. Rainfall in particular could deviate significantly from traditional patterns.
Prof Boyle said: “The long-term trends towards higher temperatures and higher levels of rainfall mask a potentially greater challenge from shifts in seasonal weather patterns and increasing weather volatility. Seasonal shifts in rainfall patterns will pose challenges for agricultural land management, with inert-annual variability in grass and crop yields expected to rise.”
Met Éireann’s Ray McGrath confirmed that Irish weather has shown a robust warming trend in recent decades, consistent with global changes. He said that an increase in rainfall is also evident but this may be partly a feature of natural variability.
“Irish climate has become wetter with mean annual rainfall increasing by about 5% in recent decades,” he said.
“There is also evidence of an increase in frequency of very wet day. Rising temperatures and changes in precipitation patterns will impact on Irish agriculture but there is still uncertainty regarding specific details. It is unlikely the weather related to the recent fodder crisis in the spring could have been anticipated months in advance.”
In relation to the rainfall challenges of 2013, Teagasc experts noted that purchased concentrate feed usage increased by about 15% on dairy farms and 20% on cattle farms during the fodder crisis. Expenditure on purchased bulky feed increased by almost 40%.
Teagasc economist Thia Hennessy estimated that the total cost of the recent weather-related fodder crisis during 2012 and spring 2013 to be over €450m. She stressed that fodder crises are not a new phenomenon with the most recent previous one being endured by farmers in 1998/1999.
About 30% of the total milk produced in Ireland originates from farms where the soils can be classified as heavy. Heavy soils add complexities to the production system that are aggravated by inclement weather conditions like those experienced in 2012 and spring 2013.
Farms in Macroom and Kishkeam in Co Cork, Castleisland and Listowel in Co Kerry, Athea, Co Limerick, Rossmore, Co Tipperary, and Doonbeg, Co Clare, were selected representing a range of challenging soil types.
Teagasc researcher Michael O’Donovan noted that average grass production in 2011 on these seven farms was 11.6 tonnes of grass dry matter (DM) per ha. This was reduced to 7.8 tonnes DM per ha in 2012 showing the huge effect the wet summer of 2012 had on these farms.
Teagasc nutritionist Siobhan Kavanagh outlined the lessons learnt by farmers in dealing with a fodder deficit. She said that those farmers that took action early and in a planned way, revising their feed budget two to three times during the winter, came through the difficult period better than those that left it late to take action.
Teagasc has recently launched a grassland database called PastureBase Ireland, which gives very good information on national and regional grass growth.
