Warning on climate change
Such are the proverbs which help farmers through their working days, especially in recent weeks, when storms seemed to alternate with summer conditions.
Now comes a warning that Ireland’s agriculture sector will face losses of up to €2bn per annum if climate change is allowed to continue unchecked.
The warning comes from research carried out by Dr Stephen Flood at NUI Maynooth, commissioned by the Stop Climate Chaos coalition of development, environ-mental, youth and faith-based organisations.
They say if current levels of climate change continue, winter rainfall will increase by up to 17% by the 2080s, while summer rainfall will decrease by up to 25%, with the largest reductions in the southern and eastern coastal areas.
Stop Climate Chaos says Ireland must act now to respond to climate change and to ensure our agriculture sector continues to thrive.
On one hand, more variable weather including drought, flooding, heavy rainfall and extreme temperatures will change the range and prevalence of agricultural pests and diseases, increase stress on animals, change water availability and crop yields, and make it harder to provide sufficient resources for animals, it is warned.
But on the other hand, potential opportunities for Irish farmers are seen also. Wheat and beet yields are projected to increase significantly by the middle of this century, and Stop Climate Chaos says the outlook for Irish grain exports is promising, because other regions of Europe such as Romania, Bulgaria, Hungary and Serbia are expected to see crop yields fall due to increasing water shortages.
The research findings were discussed at a recent meeting between key stakeholders from the farming and environmental sectors, organised by Stop Climate Chaos, with the aim of promoting co-operation between the farming and environmental sectors. For the farmers, suggestions that Ireland could become a grain exporter must have seemed far-fetched, when we have nearly seven million cattle, over five million sheep, and over 1.5m pigs to feed.
According to Stop Climate Chaos, the farming and environmental sectors have had an adversarial relationship, with each group believing the other fails to understand its point of view.
The organisation says the 2012 fodder crisis exposed the potential vulnerabilities of the Irish livestock sector to adverse weather.
They say it’s important to recognise the threat posed by future climate changes to silage, hay and pasture output, and to plan accordingly.
Farmers might reply that the finding that summer rainfall will decrease by up to 25% will ensure the 2012-13 fodder crisis will not be repeated, because it was primarily caused by a wet summer. They might also say that it is impossible to have faith in the forecast for the 2080s when they can’t get a reliable forecast for a week ahead.
It is ironic that farmers are not more worried about climate change when, as Stop Climate Chaos says, theirs is one of the most climate-sensitive industries in Ireland.
Can any credit be given for farmers’ intuition, and their willingness to take whatever the weather throws at them in their stride? Apparently not, with Stop Climate Chaos saying it is an unfortunate assumption in Ireland that, with our temperate climate, our agriculture sector will be relatively unaffected by climate change.
They say we must not just accept climate change, we must also continue to work to limit it — which means supporting the organisation’s call for a robust climate law to be introduced by our government. It is a big challenge for anyone in Ireland to go along with this, when the world’s richest and biggest countries are the major climate change offenders, on a scale which dwarfs anything Ireland might do. China alone is said to produce 29% of global carbon dioxide emissions, burning as much coal as the rest of the world combined.
The oil-rich Gulf state of Qatar is estimated to have the highest carbon dioxide emissions on a per-person basis (its citizens are provided with free electricity and water).
China also takes the lead for emission of greenhouse gases other than carbon dioxide. And the US is responsible for almost 30% of cumulative carbon dioxide emissions since 1850 (scientists say it can stay in the atmosphere for centuries).
Luxembourg is top rated for historical carbon dioxide emissions per capita, and Belgium for carbon dioxide output including imports and excluding exports.
So it is hard for Ireland to accept shared global responsibility for both causing and mitigating climate change.
Nevertheless, farmers will certainly agree with the recommendation to adapt agricultural practices to take account of climate change impacts — including crop diversity and more varieties, altering planting and harvesting dates, water management strategies, and research to identify crops that can grow more successfully in the next 10 to 20 years.
