Farmers’ ‘low’ prediction for Food Harvest is reasonable

Farmers were told in the survey that the food industry plans to increase production by 33%, by 2020 (the Food Harvest 2020 plan).

They were asked what percentage would be achieved. The average prediction was only 17.5%. However, this is an reasonable answer, by farmers, to what is a ‘six-mark’ question.

The huge Food Harvest 2020 plan has separate targets for 2008-2020 growth in the value of primary agricultural production (33%); exports (46%); and value-added (40%).

New figures, published recently in the ‘Milestones for Success 2013’ document, last week indicated that much of this progress has been achieved, when the 2012 figures are used. It quotes the latest Central Statistics Office figures to show increases of 25% (primary agricultural production), 13% (exports); and 20% (value-added).

That would leave, respectively, 8%, 33%, and 20% of progress needed to reach the 2020 targets. In this context, the average prediction from the respondents, of 17.5%, is a promising outcome for the food industry. For example, if applied to primary agricultural production, it implies a 9% over-achievement.

Launching the ‘Milestones 2013’ document, Agriculture Minister Simon Coveney said the agri-food sector sector has continued to make excellent progress, with the latest CSO figures for food and beverage exports showing a 7% rise in the first half of 2013, compared to the same period in 2012.