Not just a phase as Ken uses moon to judge sun

Ken Ring, the long-range weather forecaster from New Zealand who uses lunar cycles to predict the weather and earthquakes, first became known to Irish farmers in the summer of 2009.

On Matt Cooper’s TodayFM Last Word programme, he forecast that the “summer” would be two weeks in September.

When his predictions came true, there was massive interest from farmers, and he decided to write a weather almanac for Ireland.

Ken is a former maths teacher and also a magician. He developed his interest in using moon phases to predict the weather in the 1970s, he started his website and established a weather forecast business in 1998.

His first ever almanac was for New Zealand, in 1999.

Mr Ring successfully predicted Ireland’s recent arctic winters, and the heatwave we enjoyed in July this year.

He believes his methods should be used to predict earthquakes as well as long-term weather.

Q. You published your first Irish almanac in 2010. Do you get big sales of the almanac for Ireland?

A. Yes, enough for me to want to keep it going. Until the regular forecasters start recognising long-range techniques, there is a place for my work.

Q. September has often been a good month here and often what we call a summer month, is it likely to be a good month this year?

A. September starts to lose the feel of summer in the second week. It may be wet for much of the first week, mostly dry from the 6th to the 10th, then, with temperatures finally below the 20s, wet on and off between the 11th and the 24th.

From the 25th to the 30th should be mostly dry.

There could be good rain in Cavan, and the least may be in Galway.

Showers are not expected to be heavy during the month. The last week may provide a window for a last cut of hay for farmers.

Q. From September until the end of the year, can we expect any extreme cold spells or wet or stormy spells?

A. October is likely to be a generally wet month, with no useful dry spells.

Most rain is coming around the 5th, 11th, and around the 24th. It may be wettest in the southeast and southwest. Dublin may be driest.

November is wet in the first five days, followed by mainly dry weather until the 18th, then rain from the 20th to the 25th, with possible flooding. The first serious cold spell is in the last few days of November, with possible snow on the last day.

The wettest counties may be Roscommon and Sligo, with Dublin the driest.

December rain comes in the first 12 days and in the last week, with drier conditions from the 13th to the 25th.

It should be wettest in the southwest and driest in the northeast.

There may be chances of snow in the last days of the year and the first days of January, as temperatures plunge in January’s first week.

Q. Last spring, and the first four or five months of this year were unseasonably cold, bringing hardship for many farmers. Does it look like anything similar could happen in 2014?

A. The coming winter is not expected overall to be severe, but is likely to serve up some very cold spells, with rain and snow, for instance, in the second half of February.

The first half of January, most of February and March, and the second and third weeks of April are likely to be colder periods.

Frosts may keep revisiting some counties until the third week of May.

Q. I’m sure you are aware that conventional forecasters criticise your methods. Have your predictions ever been very wrong?

A. Yes, of course. No one has all the answers.

Our accuracy has often been assessed at around 80-85%, and the applicability error ranges over 50 to 80 miles, and with a variation factor of one to two days, which is the norm in all forecasting, and the same as Met Éireann and the British met service.

That means we may be awry about six days in a month, or for a couple of months in a year.

That is why taking a longer view is more valid, and we suggest that any three to four day window of potential will give a better understanding of forthcoming conditions than focusing on any one day. When we name a day, it is as a point of focus, but the trend is the important factor, and not necessarily getting every day 100% exact, although we do our best.

Weather is always an inexact science, and even commercial tide tables are not exact.

Our aim is to provide something useful, something a planner is better off having than not having, when making serious weather-related investment decisions.

We started this service because farmers requested it, because they felt they were not being served well enough by conventional forecasters who constantly admit they can only forecast for one or two days ahead with any confidence.

Q. So far, your August prediction has being somewhat off, what is the reason for that?

A. I think the east has received the continuance of the fine and warm weather for August that we predicted. The high pressure zones have arrived on cue, but the heat has not been as intense.

The moon method is best suited for timing of weather events.

The amount of heat is controlled by the sun, and that also sets the amount of rain, because of evaporation. I do not monitor the sun, because I do not have any instrumentation for this.

It is an error factor which I always warn about in my method,

Q. Finally, your new almanac for 2014 is now available, where can Irish readers purchase it, and how much is it?

A. It is available this week, go to www.predictweather.com and you will see the order form.

The cost is €33 plus €16.50 for postage. It contains over 500 pages of weather for the whole year for all counties. It’s an ideal present for the farmer or outdoor person.