Tough animal welfare rules may lead to pork shortage
Germany and Spain are the top two producers, and the Ancoporc traders association in Spain said estimates of a 5% to 10% drop in pig numbers are “very reasonable”. A spokesman for the German Farmers’ Association has predicted the EU could become a net importer of pork.
Stewart Houston, chairman of the UK’s BPEX pig farming group, said the new welfare regulations would lead to a fall of 5% to 10% in EU pork production.
From Jan 1, 2013, sows will have to be kept in groups rather than in individual stalls during most of their pregnancy. In Ireland, Teagasc have estimated only 36% of pig units, housing 44% of the sow population, are compliant with the new welfare provisions, seven months ahead of the deadline.
Pig farmers here face average bills of at least €300,000 to become compliant — or up to €400,000 if they want to retain current sow numbers. Some may be unable to raise enough money.
“There are only three countries that are 100% compliant now, and that’s Luxembourg, the UK, and Sweden,” Stewart Houston said. “What it means is that some will change, and some will exit the industry.”
A recent report issued by BPEX estimated that a drop of the EU pig herd of 5% would lead to a price increase for finished pigs of 10%.
A 10% decline in the herd would lead to serious EU shortages of pork, and substantial price increases.
It would also threaten the EU’s €4.6 billion per year of pork exports to countries such as Russia, Hong Kong and China.
Farmers are more likely to leave the industry in Spain, due to a credit squeeze which will make it harder to comply with the new rules. “Some farms won’t be able to adapt, because they cannot get the financing, or geographical conditions will leave them without room to expand, and they won’t be viable with a lower head-count,” said an Ancoporc spokesperson.
The EU pig market is on course for a repeat of the EU egg market disruption due to new 2012 animal welfare rules, which has led to huge egg price hikes in many member states.
