Teagasc predicts 10% fewer cattle farms in 2018
While this new sectoral analysis predicts a 10% decline in beef cattle farms from 100,000 down to 90,000 over the next seven years, this reflects a likely move towards mixed farming rather than any exodus from Irish beef farming, and the authors of the report expect the Government’s Food Harvest 2020 targets of a 20% increase in beef output to be met with ease. This increase will come partly from the slaughter of male dairy calves in the expanding dairy herd, and partly from production gains on existing beef farms, such as shorter calving intervals and a closer matching of calving to the prime grass season.
Teagasc beef expert Dr Eddie O’Riordan explained: “We have no divine knowledge of what will happen, but we can make predictions based on the trends of recent years. In the last few years, the numbers in beef have been coming down gradually. It is likely that the number of suckler beef cows will fall by about 14,000 a year between now and 2018.
“If one system becomes less profitable, we think that people may go into something else. So, where do you go after beef? Some may go into dairy and bio-crops. Those who have suckler beef on better land, like a lot of the farmers in Cork, Kerry and the Midlands, they may have the option of moving into dairy or energy crops.
“We are unique in Ireland in having a lot of suckler beef on good land. Elsewhere in Europe, they keep beef on marginal land. Some of our beef farmers on marginal land may move some of their focus into forestry.”
Dr O’Riordan also notes that beef output will increase from now to 2018. Up to 100,000 male dairy calves could be slaughtered as beef.
Teagasc is planning a series of suckler cow workshops on how to improve Ireland’s current 400-day calving interval. First up is an open day in Teagasc Grange on June 15.
“If we could even shift the proportion of calves born in February and March from 40% up to 50%, it would make a huge difference to overall beef output,” said Dr O’Riordan. “It would bring the calving in line with the grass supply. This would reduce input costs, plus the bigger the gains that a calf makes as a weanling, the better the prospect that those gains will be maintained later on.
“It only requires a small shift in calving output. We’re talking about an extra 0.1 calf per cow, up from 0.8 to 0.9, and a marginal improvement in using grass instead of silage. There is no one silver bullet to increase output and profit. These are small shifts, but important gains.”
