CAP pessimism is overdone
In the middle of their worst product-price and weather-related income crisis in generations, if farmers were as pessimistic as No campaigners, they would just give up. But that’s not the spirit that keeps farmers going through the difficulties that crop up every day in agriculture.
They will look on the bright side, and give thanks that world trade talks are no nearer agreement than when they started in 2001. Their more immediate concern on the broad EU stage is the three years of political give and take in negotiating the next phase of the Common Agricultural Policy, after 2013.
The starting point is that EU funding is likely to be increased for creating jobs and growth, research and development, and tackling climate change. And with an overall increase in public spending ruled out by the financial crisis, the days of agriculture accounting for nearly 40% of the EU budget may be numbered.
However, farmers can hope that the gradual winding down of market intervention, and the shift of funding to rural development, will come to a halt – because the most powerful supporter of this trend, Agriculture Commissioner Mariann Fischer Boel, is likely to stand down shortly.
Many Irish farmers will be hoping the 66-year-old Dane bows out, as the new European Commission takes shape between now and year-end.
After all, during her five-year reign, she has overseen a sugar sector reform which closed the industry in Ireland, and directed last November’s Health Check – which IFA condemned, particularly for the extra 5% transfer from the single farm payment to rural development.
Former Dutch Agriculture Minister Cees Veerman is a likely successor.
Previously a farmer in Holland and France, he has chaired the Society for the Preservation of Nature in Holland, but is well known for backing EU food self-sufficiency with his statement, “We have to ensure 1.2 billion meals every 24 hours in Europe. We don’t want to be dependent on other regions of the world for food the way we are for oil.” This experienced politician can at least be considered a “safe pair of hands”.
Romania is also a possible to get the agriculture portfolio. A Romanian commissioner would be more resistant to change in the CAP, other than to see a funding shift from west to east.
EU agriculture ministers would probably go along with a fairer share-out of direct aid. And it’s not just eastern European farmers who could benefit from an evening out of single farm payments – which will remain a significant part of the CAP, according to the agriculture ministers.
Among the ministers, the powerful Franco-German alliance will still have enormous influence, in combination with Belgium, Luxembourg, Ireland, Austria, Finland and maybe Portugal, Spain, Hungary, Slovenia, Slovakia, Greece and Italy.
Fluent German speaker Bruno Le Maire has already formed an alliance with his German counterpart Ilse Aigner, to look at the future of the CAP.
For the first time, the European Parliament will have equal power with the Council of Ministers in making CAP decisions – if we ratify Lisbon on October 2.
The European Parliament’s influence will be unpredictable. Votes on farm policy are likely to go along national lines, but could follow the six big party groupings in the Parliament.
The Parliament’s different committees – including agriculture, budget, environment, and development aid committees – could sway the voting.
Ireland will benefit from the presence in the agriculture committee of Liam Aylward and Mairead McGuinness.
Although Italian Paolo De Castro is only the second ever social-democrat to head the committee in 30 years, he is particularly well-qualified in terms of agricultural experience. He sided with the pro-reform Britain , Denmark and Sweden in Agenda 2000 negotiations.
Radical French farmer José Bové, famed for having gone to prison for vandalising a MacDonalds restaurant, is a vice-chairman of the committee, which include former Portuguese Agriculture Minister Luis Capoulas Santos, and former Scottish farmers leader George Lyon.
The political milieu in which the CAP after 2013 will be decided is further complicated by the rotation of the six-month EU presidency. Proposals for reform will emerge in July 2011, when Poland starts its presidency. Denmark will follow, hosting much of the negotiations, and Cyprus’s first ever EU presidency in the second half of 2012 will be a hot one for CAP reform.
Cyprus’s inexperience could strengthen the Commission’s hand in the negotiations. But if talks run into 2013, the future of the CAP will be decided in Dublin, under the Irish presidency. Running the presidency, we would have a better chance of getting a favourable outcome for Ireland. And the delay would push agreed changes back to 2015, requiring the 2013 budget to be rolled-over for 2014.
However, if we were to approach the unpredictable process of CAP reform with the attitude reflected in the Lisbon No campaign, our aspirations would be defeated from the start.
