EU pig prices move ahead as breeding herd shrinks
The production decline is affecting finished pig supplies, helping to push EU pig prices so far in 2009 to 3% ahead of year earlier levels.
The most significant falls in production are forecast for countries such as Poland, the Czech Republic and Hungary, where production in the early part of 2009 could be down by as much as 20%. This increases their import demand, especially for cheaper cuts. There are significant pig herd reductions also in countries such as Spain and Denmark, and British pig numbers have been in steady decline over recent years. In their latest summer census, the number of replacement gilts had fallen 12%, indicating that further contraction is expected.
In 2009, British finished pig supplies are forecast to fall by 4%, mostly evident during the first half of the year.
Profitability for EU pig farmers improved in 2008, but the weakening economic climate has affected demand. Projections for 2009 suggest that demand from the major importers, Russia and Japan, will ease.
In February, Irish producers got e1.37 per kg of carcass, allowing a profit margin over feed of e0.41 per kg, according to Teagasc.
