Path dependency — economic theory that the may keep EU agriculture policy on the rails
Few of them ponder why the 134-years-old QWERTY layout in typewriters is still used in computer keyboards.
When videos arrived, in the 1980s, why was Betamax defeated in the market by the VHS system? Why do businesses of a certain type tend to congregate geographically — like the pharmaceutical industry in Cork harbour? Why does the EU spend more than 40% of its budget on agriculture and rural development?
For all four questions, the answer may be the same — path dependency.
Path dependency can be defined as the tendency of a past or traditional practice or preference to continue, even if better alternatives are available.
This is a concept that Irish farmers’ leaders will have to know inside-out next year, when negotiations kick off about the EU budget after 2013.
People in agriculture will also appreciate the path dependency theory for why the petrol car engine has persevered over the steam and electricity engines with which it initially competed.
A 1914 outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease in North America led to the withdrawal of horse troughs, where steam cars could fill with water. It took about three years to develop a steam car that did not need to be filled with water every 40 miles.
But, by then, it was too late; the path to petrol domination was secured — albeit with the help of billions of dollars poured into research and development.
Path dependency is also thought to have determined the domination of light-water nuclear reactors — even though they are more prone to meltdown than heavy-water or gas-cooled reactors.
It was only because major US companies had experience with light-water reactors, for military use and production lines already in existence, that they became the majority choice.
